[PEN-L:30246] forecasting in 'middle' america

["Ian Murray" <seamus2001@xxxxxxxxx>]

[NYTimes]
Against All Odds, a Couple of Bulls
By DANIEL ALTMAN

Mr. Smith's real people - middle-class consumers - will do more than enough to
keep the economy growing at a speedy clip, he predicted. Many more families own
their own homes, he pointed out, than own a share of stock or a mutual fund
directly. Mr. Smith said he could conceive of homeowners refinancing their
mortgages at lower interest rates and then buying cars with zero percent
financing, perhaps leaving their total monthly payments unchanged.

"That's a middle-American thing to do," he said. "As long as interest rates
remain relatively low, by standards of the last 40 years, why is this going to
stop?"

Rather than conferring with managers of billion of dollars, Mr. Smith, who
recently became the chief economist for the Society of Industrial and Office
Realtors, said he preferred to talk to heartland executives, investors with
smaller portfolios and one other expert - his wife.

She was not surprised by the scandals that have helped cripple the stock market,
Mr. Smith said. "Her response was, `Hey, if you're middle American like me, all
along you thought all these corporate tycoons were crooks.' "


full at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/14/business/14BULL.html