[PEN-L:30181] Re: bubble watch

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

This is what American Bankers Association said about credit card
delinquencies in June. Does anyone have more recent information?
Doug?

Sabri

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http://www.aba.com/Press+Room/062502delinquency.htm

NEWS RELEASE 2002

ABA Media Contact: Julie Malveaux
(202) 663-5466
E-mail: jmalveau@xxxxxxx
-------------------------------------------------

FEWER PEOPLE REPAID LOANS LATE IN FIRST QUARTER 2002
Credit card delinquencies held steady while auto loan defaults
dipped

WASHINGTON, June 25 - The number of people past due on their
credit card bills held steady in the first quarter of 2002 while
other loan delinquency rates dropped, according to the American
Bankers Association's (ABA) latest Consumer Credit Delinquency
Bulletin.

While credit card delinquencies remain unchanged?from 3.88
percent (seasonally adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 2001?the
composite ratio of closed-end installment loans 30 days or more
past due fell from 2.34 percent of all accounts to 2.10 percent
in the first quarter.  The composite ratio tracks eight types of
closed-end consumer installment loans including auto, home equity
and personal loans.  The composite's 2.10 percent delinquency
rate is the lowest reported since the second quarter of 1999
(2.09 percent).

First quarter 2002 credit card delinquencies based on total
dollars outstanding also fell, to 4.50 percent (not seasonally
adjusted) from the previous quarter's 4.67 percent but higher
than 4.13 percent reported one year ago.

"The fact that delinquencies have either held steady or improved
reflects the underlying strength of consumer finances," said ABA
Chief Economist James Chessen.  "A combination of low rates and a
growing economy have helped fuel loan growth and improved the
ability of many consumers to pay their bills. Consumers' ability
to manage their debt should continue to improve as the economic
recovery picks up steam."

As in the fourth quarter of 2001, the composite ratio decreased
in large part because of a decrease in auto loan default ratios.
Though direct auto loan delinquencies inched up to 2.29 percent
from 2.27 percent in the fourth quarter of last year,
delinquencies for indirect auto loans fell substantially from
2.35 percent to 1.98 percent.

The ABA also reports that delinquencies on home equity loans,
based on the number of accounts, decreased from 1.38 percent to
1.28 percent in the first quarter.  Late payments on home equity
lines of credit also decreased, from 0.81 percent in the fourth
quarter of last year to 0.64 percent in the first quarter.  Home
equity numbers are not seasonally adjusted.  Home equity lines
continue to be the loan category with the lowest delinquencies.

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