[PEN-L:28465] Blair tempted by Euro

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

PM may risk euro vote within a year

Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent Thursday July 25, 2002 The 
Guardian

Tony Blair has suggested that he is willing to risk a referendum on the 
euro in this parliament, even if he begins the campaign with the pro-euro 
cause seriously trailing in the polls.

The Guardian has learnt that the prime minister remains convinced that 
large swathes of public opinion are open to persuasion once a pro-euro 
campaign starts.

He has dismissed suggestions that there will be a Treasury economic 
assessment by next June in which the chancellor, Gordon Brown, pronounces 
that Britain has met some, but not all, the tests.

Such an announcement might allow the government to defer a referendum until 
six to 12 months after the next general election.

But the prime minister has dismissed such a scenario, insisting it has not 
come from him or from others inside Downing Street.

He instead is giving the impression to ministerial colleagues and others 
that he is focused on a major decision on the euro in the next 12 months.

Mr Blair accepts that the Treasury's five tests remain paramount, but 
insists that he is willing to stake his long-term reputation on taking 
Britain into the euro if the economic conditions have been met, and will 
accept the consequences for his own premiership if he is defeated in a 
referendum.

The prime minister is also said to be in continuous discussion with Mr 
Brown over the five tests, rather than waiting for the chancellor to 
pronounce on the issue.

Mr Blair's confidence has been bolstered in recent weeks by a report from 
his pollster, Philip Gould, suggesting the euro debate is becoming winnable 
for the first time.

But the latest poll by Barclays Capital this week shows that 61% - a 
majority of 35% - would reject the euro if there was a referendum tomorrow, 
the strongest anti-euro vote since the poll started in November last year. 
But the majority against entry falls to 10% if the tests are met and the 
government recommends entry.

Pro-European businessmen warn that deferring the euro referendum until 
after the election will mean the collapse of the Britain in Europe 
campaign, the umbrella group trying to generate support for Europe and the 
euro.

There are also signs that some of Labour's financial difficulties are being 
worsened by the decision of potential donors to wait for the starting 
signal on the euro campaign.

Labour is £6m in debt, and some of the most likely sources of cash are 
waiting for clearer signals on whether money will also be needed for a euro 
campaign next year, in either the spring or the autumn.

The electoral commission has suggested the referendum should not be held on 
the same day as elections to the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly, 
for a variety for technical and democratic reasons.

This makes a spring referendum more difficult, but not impossible.

According to some, sterling's fall against the euro makes the case for 
joining the single European currency easier, but is far from sufficient.