[PEN-L:28303] Re: Sabri on Iraq/Turkey

["ken hanly" <khanly@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Turkey Warns of Lengthy Iraq War
Sun Jul 21, 9:00 AM ET
By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Turkey's embattled prime minister on Sunday warned the
United States risked becoming bogged down in a long war if it moves ahead
with plans to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein ( news - web sites).



  U.S. Seeks Turkey Support Vs. Iraq
(AP)



"Iraq is ... so developed technologically and economically despite the
embargo, that it cannot be compared to Afghanistan ( news - web sites) or
Vietnam," Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said in an interview on state-run
television.

"It will not be possible for the (United States) to get out of there
easily," Ecevit said after a recent visit to the crucial NATO ( news - web
sites)-member country on Iraq's northern border by Deputy Defense Minister
Paul Wolfowitz. The Pentagon ( news - web sites) No. 2 was in Turkey to
lobby for it's assistance in any U.S. move against Saddam.

Ecevit said he did not know when the action might occur or what shape it
might take. President Bush ( news - web sites) has said U.S. policy demand's
the Iraqi leader's ouster.

He said the United States should consider measures other than a military
action in Iraq, but did not elaborate.

"There are other measures to deter the Iraqi regime of being a threat to the
region," he said.

Turkish leaders, grappling with political uncertainty and looming early
elections, are reluctant to back any U.S. action they fear could hamper the
country's economic development and lead to the creation of an independent
Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

Turkey has long complained that it has lost some $40 billion in trade with
Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War ( news - web sites) and U.N. embargo.

Turkish officials have also repeatedly said they fear that a war in Iraq
would encourage Kurds in northern Iraq to create an independent state, which
could in turn, encourage Turkey's own Kurdish population to do the same.
Kurdish rebels fought Turkish troops for autonomy for 15 years, in a
struggle that has cost an estimated 37,000 lives.

"There is a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq, we cannot allow this go
any further," Ecevit said.

"President Bush is a friend of Turkey. We do not want to hurt his feelings,
but it is our duty to let them know our concerns," he said.

Turkish backing is seen as crucial to any action against Iraq. The country
was a launching pad for U.S. strikes against Iraq during the Gulf War and
still hosts some 50 U.S. warplanes enforcing a no-fly zone over northern
Iraq.

Turkey is also in desperate need of foreign loans to recover from a deep
financial crisis and many believe that the country has little choice but to
agree to U.S. action.

After the Wolfowitz visit Turkish officials suggested Turkey, NATO's only
predominantly Muslim member, would go along provided the United States
forgave big outstanding military debts and guaranteed there would be no
Kurdish state in what is now northern Iraq.




----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <pen-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 8:22 AM
Subject: [PEN-L:28296] Sabri on Iraq/Turkey


>
> Rob wrote:
>
> > Kuwait is not being helpful, and I believe Jordan has
> > more or less publicly said no as of yesterday.  I
> > suppose Dubya has Ankara at his mercy, but there's a very
> > long election campaign afoot there, and I'd be surprised
> > if any party, no matter how desperate, would go along unless
> > at least a couple of other significant governments in the
> > Muslem world are up for it. And who'd that be?  In short,
> > this Iraq thingy may just not be doable.
>
> G'Day from Ankara Rob,
>
> >From here, there Iraq thingy looks quite doable. I don't mean to
> say it will certainly be done but from here it looks so
> nonetheless.
> >From cab drivers to barbers to waiters to engineers to poets to
> columnists, people in Turkey look at the Iraq operation a sure
> thing. And
> the current turmoil in Turkey is viewed by the "man on the
> street" as part of the US "conspiracy" to screw the world so that
> the US can
> maintain and strengthen its hegemony, although they don't state
> it quite that way. Even Tansu Ciller, a former prime minister and
> the
> president of the conservative True Path Party, who is viewed by
> many as part of the ongoing conspiracy, publicly stated that she
> want to
> be the prime minister during the Iraq Operation of the US.
>
> By the way, nobody would take any anti-conspiracy theorist, be
> that Chip Berlet or Michael Pugliese, seriously here. Jewish
> conspiracies, American conspiracies so forth are an ordinary part
> of daily conversations in Turkey. The dislike of the US is
> growing fast
> and unfortunatelly innocent Americans who have nothing to do with
> what their government is doing to the rest of the world are no
> better
> liked than their government.
>
> I am writing this from an internet cafe and I need to leave soon.
> So let me finish with this:
>
> >From here Jordan appears to be playing a double game. It is
> believed that Jordan may yield to the US and let the US use its
> soil to
> attack Iraq. Speculation has it that Prince Hasan's attendance to
> the Iraq opposition meeting in the UK was approved by King
> Abdullah
> of Jordan as part of the double play I mentioned above. The same
> goes for Turkey. Dervis is in the US in these days and the "man
> on
> the street" here believes that he went there to receive orders
> before this ongoing "civilian coup" to tame anti-Iraq forces in
> Turkey comes
> to a conclusion. As with all games, the end result of this game
> is also uncertain but I wouldn't write off the possibility of the
> Iraq thingy
> so quickly.
>
> See you all when I am back in mid-August,
>
> Best,
> Sabri
>
>
>
> --
>
> Michael Perelman
> Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
>
> Tel. 530-898-5321
> E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>