Re: question about Vietnam War from Michael Yates

[miychi <miyachi9@xxxxxxxxxx>]

On 2002.05.20 11:14 AM, "Michael Perelman" <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

> I believe that James Duesenberry once suggested that the war in Vietnam
> would have a positive effect on Vietnam's economic growth because it
> sped up urbanization. Is this true?  If it is, can anyone give me a
> citation?  Thanks.
>
> Michael Yates
>
I disagree with James Dussenberry. Vietnam war is from the beginning with
liberation struggle from France occupation and then American Rule.
It result in destroying urban and farm. It result in Massacre of innocent
Vietnam citizen and children. It result in rape, misery, poverty and hungry
How does Dussenberry prove urbanization? How doe prove he economic growth?
Even now North Vietnam suffers poverty nevertheless Government urbanize
policy. Below is from Economist article




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Forecast
May 13th 2002
>From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast

Country Forecast 
Vietnam
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Communist Party general secretary, Nong Duc Manh, will pursue a tough
campaign to crack down on corruption. The pace and progress of economic
reform is unlikely to quicken in 2002-03, despite attempts by Mr Manh to
breathe new life into the economic renovation (doi moi) process. Real GDP
growth will slow in 2002 as a whole, but a recovery in the global economy
will provide a boost to inward foreign direct investment and exports later
in the year. The economy will expand more briskly in 2003, at a rate close
to 7%, as exporters take full advantage of the benefits of the trade
agreement with the US. The current account will fall back into deficit in
2002-03, primarily as a result of stronger domestic demand. Consumer prices
continued to fall in 2001, but will rise in 2002-03.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

Plans to repatriate the ethnic-minority villagers who fled into Cambodia
following unrest in the Central Highlands over a year ago are floundering.
In March the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) pulled
out of a repatriation agreement with Vietnam and Cambodia, and the US has
since offered asylum to the migrants. Unless the Vietnam government handles
this issue delicately, the disbursement of international aid this year may
be disrupted.

Economic policy outlook

There appears to have been a genuine shift in thinking within the government
and the Communist Party towards a more favourable attitude towards private
enterprise. However, the economic reform programme supported by the World
Bank and the IMF is proceeding slowly.

Economic forecast

After two years of consumer price deflation, an inflationary trend is now
clearly in evidence. Consumer prices rose by 3.4% year on year in March,
with food prices rising by 7.1%. Inflation in 2002-03 is now forecast to
average 2.8% and 4%, respectively.