Re: Yen

["Charles Jannuzi" <jannuzi@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I should clarify what I earlier wrote.

> 2.
> > CB: Which would hurt Japan's exports.
>
CJ:

> Not necessarily if it could sell them for higher profits.

I mean a cheaper yen with a mild recession in the US might still be better
than a higher yen and a boom economy in the US (as the 1990s showed).

 I don't see Japanese exports as a  determining factor in much  of the US
economy, except for those tied to the US automobile industry (though as I've
pointed out, US capital has its tentacles in deep into Japanese auto
production as well). I suppose there is a potential that Japanese G3 mobile
phone technology could be exported and wipe out the American producers, but
the US seems to be off in its own little dream world with this. Moreover, US
venture capital has taken huge stakes in Japanese telecoms--including the
investment fund of choice for the Bushes and Bin Ladens, Carlyle Group.

BTW, the 'average' Japanese consumer is much more likely the buyer of either
an American made product or service or American-branded ones than is the
case with American consumers and Japanese products and services. This is
more true than ever and is quite noticeable if you've travelled between the
two countries in the past 5 years.

It's interesting to note how firms identified with Japan, Inc. make their
best profits in the US: when there are quotas on what is exported and who
gets to do it combined with a strong demand for the export in the US. This
happened in automobiles and benefited Toyota and Honda tremendously (with
Nissan sort of slipping up, but mostly in the Japanese market, so their loss
of share in the domestic market hurt their economies of scale in producing
for North America).

Something similar happened to RAM back in the 1980s with the absurdity of
things like US manufacturers going out on the world market and buying
Japanese RAM elsewhere to get around the shortages created by the quotas on
Japanese RAM! Now that was when RAM was profitable!

Charles Jannuzi