BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 2002:

Starting in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release a new
measure called the superlative consumer price index, which is designed to
come closer to a cost-of-living measure than the current index, BLS
officials say.  "We consider this a major development in our consumer price
program," says John Greenlees, BLS associate commissioner for consumer
prices.  The superlative CPI -- to be known as the "C-CPI-U" -- will be a
supplemental inflation measure, and will not replace either of the current
CPIs. The new measure's name stands for "chained consumer price index for
all urban consumers." Private economists, as well as policymakers at the
Federal Reserve, have urged the BLS to offer a price measure that more
closely approximates a true cost-of-living measure. BLS has been moving
toward the publication of a superlative price index since additional funding
was provided in the agency's fiscal 1998 budget. But the catch for some
prospective users, Greenlees acknowledged, is that the new superlative index
will be revised on a regular basis to reflect updated data on spending
patterns.  The two official CPIs are not often revised to reflect changes in
purchase patterns.  Because labor and commercial contracts often link
increases in wages or other costs to the CPI, the bureau has avoided
revisions that would cause difficulty for those users, he said.  Revisions
of the superlative index will be one year apart.  Greenlees said the first
estimates of the new index will be called the "initial" release; the second
will be the "interim" release; the third will be the "final" release.  So
far, the agency's research shows that over the 10-year period from 1990
through 2000, the CPI-U and the superlative index tracked very closely.  "In
most months, the two measures are only one-tenth or two-tenths percent
apart," he said.  During that decade, the CPI-U rose by 20.8 percent while
the superlative index increased by 19.5 percent, he said. Superlative index
figures will not be seasonally adjusted until there is a long enough history
to develop adjustment factors.  Published data will show price changes for
28 items using a broad index for the U.S. city average.  The index will have
a 1999=100 reference base and will not be calculated for periods before
December 1999 (Pam Ginsbach, Daily Labor Report, page A11, E8).

Unemployment rates increased in more than half the states in 2001 for the
first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says.  Jobless rates
were higher in 42 states in 2001.  Nationally, the unemployment rate
increased to 4.8 percent in 2001, from 4.0 percent in 2000.  Employment
population ratios -- the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional
population 16 years and over with a job -- dropped in 38 states and the
District of Columbia, BLS said.  The lowest annual unemployment rate for
2001 was in North Dakota, 2.8 percent, followed by Nebraska at 3.1 percent.
In 2001, 30 states had unemployment rates below the national average, while
18 states and the District of Columbia reported higher rates, BLS said
(Daily Labor Report, page D-1).

Looking toward the second quarter of this year, U.S. employers expect a
modest increase in their hiring, notably in the beleaguered manufacturing
sector, Manpower, Inc., reports. The Milwaukee-based temporary help firm
reported that about 21 percent of the nearly 16,000 firms interviewed
recently said they plan to add employees during the second quarter compared
with only 16 percent in the first quarter.  About 10 percent of employers
said they expect layoffs in the second quarter.  The 21 percent of employers
who expect to add workers in the April-to-June period is still below the 28
percent who described such plans a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page A-10;
Melissa McCord, Associated Press,
http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/268614p-2471998c.html).

Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in 2001 show that lump-sum
payment provisions were in 11 percent of all nonconstruction contracts, down
from 13 percent in 2000 and 15 percent in 1999, and below the high of 36
percent in 1988.  The analysis is based on a database of 714 collective
bargaining agreements covering more than 1,060,000 workers.  Construction
contracts were excluded because none contained lump-sum pay provisions.
Further, holiday, vacation, and other such bonuses were not included in the
analysis (Daily Labor Report, page D-4).

Small business continues to grow.  Its share of the private non-farm economy
has increased to 52 percent over the past decade, according to a report by
the Office of Advocacy of the Small Business Administration.  The growth has
been driven by the shift in the economy toward small business-dominated
sectors, such as services.  The study found that small businesses constitute
68 percent of services, 65 percent of wholesale and retail trade, and 27
percent of mining and manufacturing, the last being the only sector where
small business increased its share over both the past 2 decades (The
Washington Post, February 24, page H4).

According to the Society for Human Resource Management in Alexandria, the
proportion of companies that provided a general paid-time-off benefit --
rather than separate amounts of vacation time and sick leave -- jumped from
12 percent in 2000 to 62 percent in 2001.  That is based on a benefits
survey sent out annually to more than 750 human resources professionals.  No
one seems to understand why there was such an immense increase, other than
that the practice is catching on.  There are several reasons that push
organizations to offer leave in one big lump.  First, it helps employers
deal with those who abuse sick leave, and it can cut back on the cost of
absenteeism.  On the employees' side, it can give them better control over
leave and they could get more vacation time than they had when leave time
was split up (The Washington Post, February 24 page H6).

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