BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS,  DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2001:

RELEASED TODAY:  2002 release schedule for Bureau of Labor Statistics' major
economic indicators.

Reflecting layoffs related to the September terrorist attacks and their
aftermath, unemployment rates climbed in 33 states during October, according
to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Four states and the District of Columbia
posted jobless rates of 6 percent or more in October, with Washington state
topping the list at 6.6 percent.  "The labor market had been weakening
before the attacks, and those events exacerbated this weakness," BLS said.
Over the year ended in October, BLS said that 28 states and the District of
Columbia reported employment gains.  The largest percentage gains were
reported in Wyoming (2.8 percent), Florida (2.7 percent) and Alaska (2.1
percent) (Daily Labor Report, page D-2).

New claims for state unemployment benefits fell for the fourth straight
week, suggesting that the surge of layoffs seen after the terror attacks may
be easing.  The Labor Department reported today that for the work week
ending November 17,  new jobless claims dipped by a seasonally adjusted
15,000 to 427,000.  That followed a drop of 10,000, an even bigger decline
than the government previously estimated, according to revised figures. Even
with the decline, the level of jobless claims remained high enough to
suggest that the labor market continues to be weak (Jeannine Aversa,
Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V4732.htm).

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased by 0.3 percent in
October, after a 0.5 percent drop in September and a 0.1 percent decrease in
August, according to the Conference Board, a New York based business
research organization. Despite the small October increase, the leading index
level is still below August and July, the Conference Board reported. "The
U.S. economy was weakening before September 11 said Conference Board
economist Ken Goldstein.  "The terrorist attacks clearly caused a deeper
decline in the index than would have otherwise occurred."	The October
increase in leading indicators brought the index to 109.4 percent of its
1996 base.  Seven of the 10 indicators comprising the leading index
increased in October.  The negative contributors were average weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, average weekly manufacturing hours, and
building permits (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).

With breathtaking speed, markets and some economists have shifted from
wondering how deep the recession would be to how strong the recovery is.
Yesterday the optimists seemed to get new fodder when the Conference Board
reported that its index of leading economic indicators -- a gauge designed
to predict economic turning points a few months in advance--rose 0.3 percent
in October, the biggest one month jump since July.  But the celebration may
be premature.  Current activity such as industrial production and employment
are still contracting, and consumer spending may be weakening again after
recovering from post attack levels (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).

 A key forecasting gauge of U.S. economic activity moved slightly higher
last month, but not enough to suggest the economy is likely to recover
anytime soon, analysts said.  The Conference Board said yesterday its Index
of Leading Indicators rose 0.3 percent in October to 109.4, after tumbling
0.5 percent in September and dipping 0.1 percent in August.  The index
indicates where the overall U.S. is headed in the next 3 to 6 months.
Analysts were expecting no change.  The Conference Board largely attributed
the October gain in the index to higher stock prices and the Fed's interest
rate cuts over the past year.  But the labor and housing sectors lost ground
(Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press, Boston Globe).>

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank dramatically in
September, but the improvement was due largely to a one-time insurance
payment related to the September 11 terrorist attacks rather than a trend,
Commerce Department data show (Daily Labor Report, page D-10; John M. Berry,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61498-2001Nov20.html; Martin
Crutsinger, Associated Press,
http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/176725p-1698068c.html; Bloomberg
News, The New York Times, page C4).

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