Jockeying for position

["Michael Keaney" <Michael.Keaney@xxxxxx>]

Penners

The Guardian is a reliable source for articulating the New Labour
pro-Europe line, given its slavish adherence to it and its apparent
close connections to the British state. The article below suggests some
interesting counter-moves Blair is making with regard to rightwing US
interference in British politics (namely, the sponsorship of Iain Duncan
Smith by outfits like the Heritage Foundation and the American
Enterprise Institute). British involvement in Europe, as with anything
else, cannot be anything other than a leadership role. It is another
aspect of the Thatcher legacy (she who made Britain grate again), that
the legitimacy of foreign policy should be judged on the basis of
whether or not Britain is directing events, or at least seen to be doing
so. But it is clear that there are many in Europe, not unconnected to
the Mandelson-led Policy Network, who would wish to see the
pro-integrationists in the Washington driving seat. I'm not convinced by
the casual dismissal of the Russian position, however.

=====

Blair aims to bring Bush back into fold

EU leaders want to isolate US isolationists

Patrick Wintour, Michael White and Ewen MacAskill

Thursday September 20, 2001

Tony Blair and the German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, last night
pledged to ensure that the global crisis triggered by the destruction of
the World Trade Centre brings the United States firmly back into the
international community - and isolates the isolationists in the Bush
administration.

At the start of a daunting 48-hour dash around key capitals on both
sides of the Atlantic, the prime minister dined with Mr Schröder in
Berlin before heading for breakfast with President Jacques Chirac in
Paris. He will then fly to the US for dinner at the White House tonight
via a memorial service for the city's 5,000 dead in New York. He will be
back in Brussels in time for Friday's emergency EU summit.

After talks at No 10 yesterday with the Taioseach, Bertie Ahern, on the
US crisis and the peace process in Northern Ireland, Mr Blair spoke
publicly of the urgent need to "set an agenda for the international
community to attack the apparatus of mass international terrorism at
every single level we can".

Privately his ambition goes far beyond the immediate crisis, to the
desire among President Bush's Nato allies to ensure that Washington's
inevitable military retaliation against its presumed attackers is only
part of a much wider policy package.

He found a ready ally in the German chancellor, who told his guest last
night that he strongly supports some form of military action, but
believes the crisis represents a golden opportunity to reverse a
dangerous trend towards American isolationism.

Mr Blair and his policy advisers are increasingly hopeful that the
Republican secretary of state, the widely admired ex-soldier Colin
Powell, is getting the upper hand over the new administration's hawks,
notably defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld's team and Vice-president Dick
Cheney.

The shift in the isolationist instincts that marked Mr Bush's early
months in office - seen in its policies on missile defence and global
warming - is being attributed to the changing attitudes of Condoleezza
Rice, national security security adviser.

Like Mr Blair, Mr Schröder believes that Washington's need to build an
alliance against terrorism has forced it to recognise the limits of its
superpower status. Nor do the two leaders believe it would be wise to
"bomb sand", a reference to what they believe would be a largely
ineffectual air campaign in Afghanistan.

The French president, Jacques Chirac, has been drawing gently back from
his initial support. But Mr Schröder is said to be confident that the
German consensus in favour of purposeful military action will hold, even
among the coalition's Greens.

Mr Bush and Mr Powell saw a succession of potential allies yesterday,
including Igor Ivanov, the Russian foreign minister, the EU's foreign
policy chief, Javier Solana of Spain, and Louis Michael, the Belgian
foreign minister, representing the rotating EU presidency.

But the difficulties of building an international coalition against
terrorism were also underlined when Mr Bush met the the president of
Indonesia, Megawati Sukarnoputri, leader of the world's biggest Muslim
country.

Hours before her meeting Islamic fundamentalist groups in Indonesia
warned that they would attack US targets in the country if it launches
an offensive against Afghanistan.

Mr Bush has already won promises of support from Muslim countries such
as Saudi Arabia. But US diplomats see Indonesia as potentially an
important player as a neutral arbitrator, Muslim but remote from the
problems of the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent.

Russian officials yesterday ruled out any participation in US military
strikes against Osama bin Laden. They oppose US use of facilities in key
former Soviet states bordering Afghanistan. "It's America's business,"
the US was told.

Germany sees Iran, along with Turkey, as a stabilising influence in the
Middle East. It also wants European solidarity to strengthen US-EU ties
on a host of issues.

But the crisis is seen as a chance to promote the national interest too,
in Germany's case closer cooperation on intelligence sharing.

Full article at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,554808,00.html


Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx