Economic consequences the most important

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

The most immediate question was the political, it looks as if the US has
been too shocked and its allies/rivals have moved into action too quickly
and have inhibited the most immediate trigger happy retaliation. It may
come within the next 12,24 or 72 hours, but the longer the delay, the more
the US government will have to put this in the context of the condolences
and support of its allies. It would for example squandere temporary French
good will, by bombing Libya again, without good evidence.

But the economic consequences are to a large extent beyond any human
control now. What is likely to happen?

The Japanese market hit a 17 year low yesterday, the far less important
Hong Kong lost almost 1000 points, the FTSE in London went decisively under
5000. With Wall Street closed (the front cover of Doug's book suddenly
seems much closer to reality)  it is unlikely that the non US exchanges
will rally substantially and be able to boost Wall Street when it does
reopen. Therefore a further mass depreciation of global stock values will
be confirmed.

Most important is the psychological impact on the US consumer. For long it
seemed incomprehensible that consumer purchases could remain high. In the
last week definite adverse news about employment was added to the fall in
stock values. Now the question is whether yesterdays events will perhaps
raise the savings ratio even a few percent, which would be enough to tip
the US into a recessionary cycle. Perhaps finally the US consumer will stop
thinking that warm summers will never cease, and that the fall has come.
They will be, independent of their will, the agents of their own, and
global recession.

The loss of economic activity through the disruption of trading presumably
will in due course have a notional figure attached to it and a real
recessionary impact.

Note that in a sense Empire is already adopting the alternative economic
strategy. Liquidity we are told *will* be made available. That is short
term. What is missing is a serious global plan for reinvesting, but if they
are clever it will be in the Middle East and the Caucusus. Which they wont
be, but they might start thinking about it. After all if part of the peace
plan for northern Ireland and the Balkans is investment, why should these
areas miss out?

The sheer theatricality of yesterdays events are also part of the equation.
It is hard to know when to avoid attributing superhuman power to the
attackers but in such a well planned attack it is a serious proposition
that they timed the second impact on the WTC when the television cameras
would already be on it. Or could they not be in radio contact? The images
shown repeatedly around the world were what was intended or even better
than intended?

So there is a conjuncture of post modernism with finance, that is worthy of
analysis by Hardt and Negri. The ideology that led to the suicides, may
seem alien, but in their way they probably felt joy and liberation. Will
sales of the paperback edition of Empire go up or down as a result of
yesterday? Hard to tell yet but an important question

The comparison with Pearl Harbour is understandable but may not be the most
relevant. As an anglo-saxon I suggest two decisive moments in the struggle
between Irish nationalism and British imperialism:

1) the capture of the Dublin Post Office in 1916. Everything after that was
changed, utterly.

2) the bombing of the Baltic Exchange in London, described in the Open
University's economics course for home students and Irish prisoners
detained at Her Majesty's pleasure, as crucial to the global role of the
city of London. After this, London surrendered and parleyed with the
terrorists.

I do not advocate terrorism in any way but this all enters into a complex
game plan. One hunch I have is that with such a well planned and funded
operation as yesterday, the backers must have expert knowledge of financial
movements. The temptation to have made a killing on the world exchanges may
have been too much for them and they may have failed to cover their tracks
completely. If they succeed, such guerrilla attacks on stocks and shares
will be self financing. The ultimate hedge fund operation. Perhaps this
will finally convince the Empire of the need for public accountability for
the movements of finance capital. (probably not)

The IMF World Bank are already looking for excuses to call of ftheir
truncated meeting at the end of the month. Not of course because there is
not enormous activity going on now about how to stabilise the capitalist
world against a decisive recession, but because they will not want to
debate in public what they are doing and for whom they are doing it. Just
like the US government is probably concealing that it had a hand in the
crash of the plane that was heading for Camp David.

Non-violent but committed campaigners who object to the loss of 20,000
lives every day of every week, should watch the battle in the media closely
now. There is no such thing as absolute truth. Power depends on how it is
presented. These exchanges on the internet are already part of the struggle
for a more progressive perspective.

The ruling class knows it must change the way it governs. But will
progressive forces be able to distance themselves from terrorism yet  say
loudly too that the system of world government must change.


PS don't forget Chechnya. Russia is one of the few areas of economic growth
at present. The war started after a number of sky-scrapers were bombed, an
event that interestingly enough did not recur, so far...  Every act of
violence against people of islamic faith is ultimately against the
interests of international finance capital, and also of the people of the
world.

Time for an alternative system. Please will people continue to refocus,
mourn with others as is decent, but lead a better way ahead.

Is the New York Brecht Forum holding an emergency seminar for example?
Perhaps people can put past differences in context. A fight back that is
genuinely progessive has to start now.

Chris Burford
London