Re: Golly

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I guess I should be happy. In the "three bears" screeds that I've been
shoving at the world (available on my web-site), I've been predicting
something like this. One time, I even answered a question from Doug about
whether I thought recession would hit now (i.e., circa 1999). No, I said, I
can't predict the future that way. Who knows when it will happen? I wrote,
saying that It will probably happen in 2001, about the time Pat Buchanan or
Jesse Ventura or Dan Quayle was inaugurated. Well if W ain't the functional
equivalent of those cruds, I don't know who is. In fact, the global
dimension of what seems to be a deepening fall has surprised me.

However, at this point, the opposition to capitalism is still small and
fragmented (despite the post-Seattle growth). So it's possible that there
won't be much of political silver lining to the economic mushroom cloud
(though I can't predict politics worth beans). Of course, it's possible
that growing fascist movements -- latter-day Timothy McVeighs -- will shake
the scene, just as they did during the last US recession. In any event, it
seems like a lot of the political stability of the US (I can't speak for
other countries) is predicated on the continuation of the economic boom.
The clearest example is "welfare reform," but a lot of political problems
have been shoved into the future, to be dealt with later. It sure looks
like the future is now.

Ian wrote:
> [FT]
>
> IMF warns of a significant danger of global recession
> By Ed Crooks in London, Peronet Despeignes in Washington and David
> Ibison in Tokyo
>
> Economists at the International Monetary Fund have warned of a
> "significant danger" of a global recession along the lines of the
> early 1980s and early 1990s.
>
> A leaked draft version of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, obtained
> by Financial Times Deutschland, predicts the world economy will grow
> by 2.8 per cent this year but states that there could be "a much
> deeper and more protracted global downturn".
>
> The IMF economists' comments emerged as economic news from around the
> world gave investors and analysts fresh reasons for concern.
>
> US government figures pointed to a sharp slowdown in consumer
> spending, while in Japan a decline in industrial output, weak retail
> sales figures and a round of job cuts reinforced a growing expectation
> that the country was poised to fall into recession.
>
> The focus of the IMF's concern is the outlook for the US. Although the
> IMF forecasters have not changed the prediction made in April that the
> US will grow by 1.5 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent next year -
> roughly in line with the US administration's expectations - they see a
> serious risk of a much worse outcome.

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine