Re: Re: oil predictions

[ALI KADRI <akadri_00@xxxxxxxxx>]

It seems that my first message did not go through:

In respect to oil there are some observations that
were made about the nineties, and these are:
World demand is increasing, with third world demand
increasing at 2 percent.
Refineries are operating at 98 percent capacity, with
little new investments.
The ratio of new find to reserves was decreasing.
The OPEC supply jolt lifted or trebled prices such
that new prices would revert to a mean of 25$ per
barrel (backwardation).
Fossil fuel substitutes are only foreseeable in the
medium term and costly, particularly, in the
developing world.
Some argue for a partial but sizeable contribution of
cheap nineties oil prices possibly contributing to
above-average economic performance.
Another relevant observation is that developing
countries experiencing a foreign exchange crunch (the
majority) tend to suffer tremendously from oil price
hikes.

 The depletedness cum limitness of the resource seem
to arise from the falling ratio of new finds to number
of digs when better exploration and digging technology
exists. When that is the case than predatory politics
kicks in "major time" and the politics of oil tend to
be humanely ugly.

With the above observation holding: there are probably
two interesting scenarios and these are:
1) The developed world splitting on the division of
energy resources in the third world ( sort of the US
and Europe differing on strategy in canaille manner)
2) The developed world closing ranks behind the US to
secure energy and continuous energy resources with the
US calling the shots.
At first, the first outcome seems less probable given
Europe's vulnerability and security concerns.  The US
policy on oil follows very strict colonial patterns:
stable oil prices and stable flows at a high human and
economic cost to the producers.



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