Re: Re: BLS Daily Report

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Tom Walker wrote:

> Doug Henwood wrote,
>
> >  remember, the U.S. economy has expanded for about 75% of
> >  the time since the end of WW II
>
> That sounds like an underestimate to me. All I've got handy is annual GDP
> figures for Canada, 1962-99. They show 3 years out of 38 contracting.
> Assuming those 3 minus years contracted for 4 consecutive quarters and
> throwing in another 12 quarters of contraction for good measure, leaves
> about 85% expansion. This crude reckoning corroborates the guess I made
> before cranking up my spreadsheet. I wouldn't expect the U.S. record for the
> entire post wwII period to be worse.

I hadn't checked my numbers in a while, but you're right - it's close
to 85% (using the NBER monthly dating). From 1854-1919, it was just
55% of the months in expansion.

> But I should point out that if you walk out in the rain, you are probably
> not getting hit by raindrops on more than 15% of your body surface at any
> one time. That 15% can get you awful wet. Numbers that are least accurate at
> turning points are like brakes that work most of the time except for sudden
> stops or on steep hills.

So let me see if I've got this right - the BLS shouldn't use a more
accurate technique because there's a one in ten chance it will be
briefly inaccurate? Turning points, after all, are even briefer than
recessions themselves - we're talking about a few months out of many
years. And they produce plenty of other numbers - e.g. the household
survey and the unemployment claims figures - which do give an
accurate and almost-real time picture of what's going on.

Doug