The old order continues to unravel

[Keaney Michael <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Penners

The Guardian newspaper has played a key role in the defeat of the
Conservative Party, bringing down a succession of government ministers
during the Major era and apparently continuing the good work with its
strangely timely "exposure" of Michael Portillo's financial dealings. The
concluding paragraphs of this article suggest that the political
realignments discussed earlier here are continuing to take shape. The
pointed interventions of Geoffrey Howe, Leon Brittan and John Major suggest
a longstanding preparation among Tory europhiles to implement a realignment
should their candidate, Kenneth Clarke, be rejected by the party. That would
not necessarily entail his defeat in the leadership election, if someone
like Portillo were to win. Even David Davis might be expected to offer a
more electorally realistic platform on which to build a recovery. But Duncan
Smith is the anointed one of the punk Thatcherites, having inherited Norman
Tebbit's Parliamentary seat, and donned his mantle. The unfortunate
consequences of Duncan Smith's election and a subsequent realignment would
be the space opened up for significant protest by the Right, given the
weakened state of the Left thanks to decades of attack and subversion by the
secret state, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party's right-wing.
Enter the likes of Nick Griffin and the poujadist hauliers.

=====

Portillo backtracks after rival's strong showing

Shadow chancellor attempts to cast off liberal image and redesign campaign

Nicholas Watt, political correspondent
Thursday July 12, 2001
The Guardian

Michael Portillo yesterday watered down his liberal views on drugs and gay
rights in an attempt to woo Tory MPs after his poor
performance in the first round of the leadership contest.

On the eve of the re-run of Tuesday's vote, the shadow chancellor claimed
his call for a debate on legalisation of cannabis and a
review of Tory support for section 28 formed no part of his campaign.

"I have not raised these issues," Mr Portillo told BBC Radio 4's Today
programme. "These issues are not part of my campaign."
Portillo supporters, who are unsettled after he polled only 49 votes on
Tuesday, said that the shadow chancellor was recalibrating
his campaign in the light of a backlash among Tory MPs at his remarks on
drugs and section 28.

They admitted that Mr Portillo had raised the contentious issues, but had
only done so under questioning.

Tories on the right were dismayed when Mr Portillo told MPs on Monday that
he would review the party's support for section 28.
The following day Mr Portillo appeared to suggest the time had come for the
legalisation of cannabis.

Mr Portillo's seeming u-turn came after the Tory leadership contest was
thrown wide open on Tuesday when the shadow chancellor
failed to secure a decisive lead. Iain Duncan Smith, main candidate of the
right, surprised all wings of the party when he came
second with 39 votes.

The Thatcher favourite was closely followed by the former chancellor,
Kenneth Clarke, on 36 votes. David Davis and Michael
Ancram tied in last place on 21 votes, forcing a rerun today.

Mr Duncan Smith is now regarded as such a threat that the former prime
minister John Major is said to have intervened to warn
MPs that they should not vote for the man who led a series of Eurosceptic
rebellions during his premiership in the mid-1990s.

Mr Major believes that Mr Duncan Smith would fail to take the Tories back to
the centre ground where elections are won.

The Portillo camp are confident they will stay ahead of Mr Duncan Smith,
despite signs that supporters of the shadow chancellor
may defect. But Portillo supporters have been jolted by their rival's strong
showing, which is likely to deprive the shadow chancellor
of the decisive lead he needs if he is to win round wavering party members
in the final round.

Despite the attention on Mr Duncan Smith, supporters of Mr Clarke are hoping
that their man will pull ahead in today's ballot. They
are pinning their hopes on supporters of Mr Ancram, the "unity" candidate,
transferring their support to the One Nation former
chancellor.

But Clarke supporters were preparing the ground if he fails to come second -
the result he must achieve if his name is go before
300,000 party members who have the final say.

Two former cabinet ministers said that Sir Michael Spicer, the chairman of
the backbench 1922 committee who is running the
parliamentary contest, should allow three candidates to go before the
membership if there are only a few votes separating Mr
Duncan Smith and Mr Clarke

Lord Howe of Aberavon, the pro-European former chancellor, warned that the
Conservative party would face "substantial defections"
if Mr Clarke's name was kept off the final ballot paper. His remarks were
echoed by the former home secretary, Lord Brittan.

Full article at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,520264,00.html

Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx