Yet another take on Hubbert's peak

["Charles Brown" <CharlesB@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>>> dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx 07/09/01 01:19PM >>>
Ken Hanly wrote:

>I think most people agree with you to the following: 1)there is an impending
>global energy shortage that will cause a crisis within capitalism 2) the New
>Economy doesn't alter the fact that capitalism  is dependent upon
>traditional energy sources

I'm not sure I agree with 1); it's been wrongly asserted so many
times in the past - staring over 100 years ago - that one should be
pretty careful about predicting it again.

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CB: Offhand it would seem straight forward that quite a bit of fossil fuels have been used in the last 100 years, which would suggest a bit of a difference between the prediction 100 years ago and the prediction today.

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I notice that Mark forwarded an item from the FT about a dry hole in
Azerbaijan. There was a story next to that in the print edition of
the paper on Japanese investment in Iran which will develop that
country's reserves and production capacity. But I guess a glass at
50% capacity is always half empty.

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CB: Wouldn't it be moving toward more than half empty , hasn't the half used up been in a little over 100 years, and aren't we using it up at a much faster rate today than it was being used up 75 to 100 years ago ?  So, _if_ it is half empty, wouldn't the other half be used up in less than 100 years at the current rate ?