by H.D.S. Greenway The Boston Globe Wednesday, May 23, 2001
BOSTON After being the world's No. 1 economic power during most of the
20th century, is America ready to fall into second place within a couple
of decades? At the moment it is riding high. The gap between the world's
No. 1 and the next tier down is probably greater than at any other time in
recorded history. But even superpowers wane, and American preeminence, at
least in economic terms, may not last another 25 years. So says the
Harvard- and Oxford-trained economist Shahid Javed Burki, a former World
Bank official and the chief executive officer of Emerging Markets
Partnership, a Washington consulting firm. In a recent talk to executives
of the American International Group, Mr. Burki predicted that by 2025
China will have the largest economy in the world and the United States
will be in second place. China, he said, has already passed Japan for the
No. 2 position.
Last year the United States, with an $8 trillion gross domestic product,
accounted for about 22 percent of the global total, according to Mr.
Burki. The European Union contributed another 20 percent. "If the present
trends continue over the next quarter century, we will see a fundamental
reordering in the position of the large economies." China's share of
global output will be 26 percent, while America's will remain the same,
around 21 or 22 percent.