Instability in the Balkans

["Ken Hanly" <khanly@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The Vancouver Sun 26 March 2001

Opinion

Catalyst for chaos

By Andre Gerolymatos

Balkan powder-keg: The Albanian fight for independence, now
extending to Macedonia, is rooted in NATO machinations to overthrow
Slobodan Milosevic two years ago.

Last week marked the second anniversary of the NATO bombing of
Kosovo and Serbia. The intent of the air strikes was to bring the curtain
down on the almost 10-year-old Balkan crisis by destroying the military
capability of Serbia's dictator, Slobodan Milosevic.
U.S. President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
transformed the Kosovo issue into an international cause celebre. As a
result, the headlines were dominated with images of mass graves, reports
of ethnic cleansing and the inevitable demonization of Milosevic.
In 1999, Kosovo was part of Serbia's sovereign territory. However,
issues of state sovereignty and the stability of the Balkans took a back
seat to horrific pictures of burning villages and endless refugee columns.
For 72 days, NATO's warplanes bombed Serbia and Kosovo, inflicting
death and destruction on mostly innocent civilians. In the process, it set
the stage for the current Balkan crisis.
At least a year before the NATO air strikes, the Americans were
preparing for a possible assault against Serbia. Part of the plans included
organizing and training the Kosovo Liberation Army so that it could
support a NATO ground offensive. Ultimately, it was not necessary to use
the KLA but the dye was cast. The U.S. rhetoric and the spectacle of a
NATO air armada fighting for the Albanians in Kosovo convinced the
insurgents that independence was only a matter of time. Indeed, the
contagion of Albanian self-determination spread beyond Kosovo to
southern Serbia and to the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
However, the creation of new states in the Balkans or a greater
Albania is not in the interests of the U.S. or Europe. During the NATO
bombing of Yugoslavia, the Americans may have hinted at some form of
separate status for Kosovo as well as encouraging the Montenegrins to
secede from Yugoslavia. However, these policies came to an end with the
defeat of Milosevic. Unfortunately, no one told the Albanians their struggle
for independence was merely a stratagem to bring down his regime.
To make matters worse, the new Bush administration is intent on
terminating America's military role in the Balkans. Consequently, the
Albanian insurgents had to maintain or instigate a crisis environment to
keep the Americans in the Balkans.
The National Liberation Army (the successor to the KLA) must at all
costs increase and prolong the level of violence so that mission fatigue
will force the U.S. to broker a series of compromises giving the Albanians
increments of greater autonomy eventually leading to independence. If
that means fighting NATO, so much the better -- American casualties will
only enhance the crisis and force the Bush administration to look for a
political solution.
Time is on the side of the Albanians and the consequences for
Southeastern Europe could be devastating. Unlike Serbia, which survived
the loss of Kosovo, Macedonia cannot maintain its coherence if the
eastern part of the country is lost or becomes a battle zone. This tiny
republic is a microcosm of the Balkan quilt of nationalities. However,
anywhere from 25 to 40 per cent of its population is Albanian. Yet, the
military, police and government agencies are staffed largely by Slavic
Macedonians, which has left the Albanians a disgruntled second-class
minority. Even the contested issue of the name "Macedonia" is testament
to the exclusion of the Albanian element in the corporate and national
identity of the republic.
It is not coincidental that in the last couple of weeks the NLA has
concentrated its efforts in the tiny republic and the momentum of war is
rapidly engulfing its eastern frontier, which is mostly Albanian. As
violence
escalates, this small state may fall apart and result in a redrawing of the
Balkan map. The Bulgarians have historic claims both to the territory and
Slavic component of the population, which is identified as Bulgarian.
It is significant that Bulgaria officially recognizes a Macedonian state
but not a Macedonian nation. Presumably, the Serbs would not stand by
and allow a territorial vacuum on their southern frontier, especially now
that the Americans are using the Yugoslav army to fight the Albanians.
As for the Greeks, they face the prospect of coping with at least one
million refugees on their northern border. It is highly unlikely that the
people fleeing from devastation will seek asylum in poor Bulgaria or
economically bankrupt Yugoslavia. They would naturally head south to
the more prosperous Greece.
Remarkably, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia has proven the
catalyst for the chaos now unfolding. The politicians and generals who
planned the air strikes must try and put the genie back in the bottle.
Dislodging the Albanian insurgents will require a protracted guerrilla war
with no likely end in sight.

Andre Gerolymatos holds the Hellenic Canadian Congress of B.C. Chair
in Hellenic Studies at Simon Fraser University.