Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US Consumer Confidence index surges

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 06:35 PM 3/27/01 -0500, you wrote:
> Look, for much of the world, "disaster" is the norm. That hasn't worked to
> the left's advantage in too many places, at least not yet. For the more
> comfortable part of the world, disaster has rarely worked to the left's
> advantage either. In the light of that, there's something pathological and
> self-marginalizing about getting excited when the Dow loses 300 points -
> or dredging up a sucker rally from 1930 as a precedent on a day when it's
> up 200.

I don't get excited by the Dow, especially since 300 is mighty trivial. I'm
one of these folks who goes around telling people that there's a BIG
difference between the stock market and the economy. My students are bored
with this, but of course you don't hear me because you're not there. You
also don't see my public speaking efforts. You also don't see me snarling
at the news for wasting so much time on the stock market. I have even
written letters to NPR on this subject... My parents brought me up to be
very skeptical of the stock market, so I basically ignore it.

My point of "dredging up the sucker rally from 1930" is that expectations
can be and often are _wrong_. I usually use that example to indicate that
the stock market is not a very good leading indicator at all (so people
should stop dwelling on it), which fits with one of the points I read in a
book called WALL STREET I read one time.

Though a lot of leftists hope for bad tidings (or have similar bad opinions
-- or worse), it's important to remember that there are lots of
disagreements and that each individual has a different take on these issues
and shouldn't be lumped in with the rest in a knee-jerk way.

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine