BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 2, 2001

A reader of "Ask Marilyn" in Sunday's Parade Magazine asks about 'the
statement that, on average, women earn only about 75% of what men earn for
doing the same work."  She replies, "That statement is a common
misinterpretation of 1999 Bureau of Labor Statistics data.  The percentage
-- actually 77% -- simply compares the weekly median earnings (median means
middle:  equal numbers of people earn above and below that figure) of all
working women ... and all working men. ...  But that includes everyone from
dishwashers to physicists!  It has nothing whatsoever to do with "equal pay
for equal work."  Instead, it merely indicates that men generally occupy
positions that pay more. ...  "

__The U.S. economy will weaken significantly in 2001, as consumer demand and
business investment cool from the high-flying times that began to fizzle
last fall, according to a panel of economic forecasters surveyed by the
Bureau of National Affairs.  Only one prognosticator predicts a recession,
while most of the others predict that growth will shift downward to about 3
percent this year, although a few put the expected gain in real gross
domestic product at about 4 percent. ...  The economy appears to have
settled into a calmer growth mode that nearly all economists in the BNA
survey group believe will allow it to continue expanding without threat of
higher inflation.  To a greater degree than in more than a decade, however,
growth prospects hinge on new fiscal policy directions as a new
administration and a divided Congress forge compromises on tax cuts and
spending. ...  The unemployment rate is expected to rise to an average of
4.3 percent as labor demand eases. ...  Control of employment costs are key
to preventing recession. ...  Wage inflation prospects are moderate, but
benefit trend is worrisome. ...  (Daily Labor Report special issue:  "2001
Outlook:  The Economy").
__The euphoria dominating last  year turns to prudence in 2001, says The
Wall Street Journal (page A2).  Following some of the most spectacular and
volatile years for the economy in decades -- when growth zoomed in the first
half of the year -- the year 2001 economy is expected to grow at a
relatively sluggish pace throughout the year.  Most economists don't expect
a full-blown recession this year, but nearly all of them warn that the risk
of recession is substantially higher this year than it has been in many
years.  That is because two major forces that powered the U.S. economic boom
-- strong consumer spending and business investment -- are fading due to
rising interest rates and the sting of higher energy costs.  The consensus
forecast also calls for milder inflation, a higher unemployment rate, and
lower interest rates for the next 6 months. ...

The Conference Board's help-wanted index dropped 4 percentage points in
November, suggesting that there will be no quick rebound in employment
growth in the first half of 2001.  The index declined to 75 percent of its
1987 level in November, down from 85 percent one year ago. ...  (Daily Labor
Report, page A-6).

The Purchasing Management Association of Chicago reported that its closely
watched survey of manufacturing activity in the Midwest had found that
manufacturing contracted in December for a third consecutive month, as
inventories and order backlogs shrunk. ...  (New York Times, Dec. 30, page
B2).

As Japan contemplates a huge labor shortage in the very near future, the
society has shown greater readiness to contemplate even large-scale
immigration -- long one of the country's biggest taboos -- rather than
moving quickly to provide equal opportunities for Japanese women, who are
still being shunted off in large part onto dead-end jobs. ...  (New York
Times, Jan. 1, page C1).

The average cost of a public 4-year college degree was $33,364 and a private
college degree $84,080 in 1999, but it's worth it, according to a new
cost-benefit analysis, says The Washington Post (page A7).  The additional
average lifetime income from a college degree is $1.2 million for men and
$600,000 for women, according to the Mortensen Research Seminar on Public
Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post-secondary Education, based in
Oskaloosa, Iowa. ...  The report says, "Generally, more education leads to
greater economic stability and security, more prestigious employment, better
access to health care, less dependency on government assistance, longer life
span, better dietary and health practices, healthier children, greater use
of seat belts, more continuing education, greater Internet access, greater
attendance at live performances, greater participation in leisure and
artistic activities, more book purchases, better academic performance of
children, higher voting rates, greater knowledge of government, greater
community service, more volunteer work, greater tolerance of unconventional
literature, greater community leadership, and less criminal activity and
incarceration" (Washington Post, page A7).

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment:  November
2000

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