Re: Falling Russian population

[ALI KADRI <akadri_00@xxxxxxxxx>]

I have done some empirical work on this. Not only for
Russia but for all ex-socialist Europe the fertility
rate is comparable to fertility in war time
conditions. Obviously, many socio-economic factors
come into play in deciding this fall. Principally a
combination of poverty (income loss) especially, women
in poverty- the syndrome has been dubbed "the
feminization of poverty," and the shrinking role of
the state in supporting larger families and maternity
leave etc.. stand out from the crowd. What is really
striking theoretically, although I am not a thorough
demographer, is the speed with which this fall in
fertility occurred and the fact that it stayed low.
Usually, a huge lag exists between capital
accumulation and population growth. In this particular
instance demographic transition and economic
performance go down together immediately. The long
term implication on economic growth is nearly self
evident in this: low population and low growth circle.
Particularly hit are the Baltic countries because of
poor economic performance and Hungary because it used
to have the most extensive state support for birth in
the world e.g. average maternity leave was over a year
with fully paid wages.
Amongst other things, the biggest risk for demand side
enthusiasts comes from population to the economy and
for supply siders from the long term impact of a shift
in the age structure of the labour force.

--- Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> In the year following the fall of the Berlin wall
> the birth rate in East
> Germany halved.
>
> A massive vote of lack of confidence in the future.
> Demographic data that
> aggregates hundreds of thousands of very personal
> decisions.
>
> Recent data on the Russian population is as serious.
> (source The Observer - UK)
>
>
> >Russians are dying out faster than at any time
> since the Second World War,
> >according to statistics released this month. The
> population has shrunk by
> >3.3 million since the Soviet Union's collapse to
> about 145 million - an
> >unprecedented decline for an industrialised nation
> in peacetime.
> >
> >Overall life expectancy in Russia fell by about
> three years over the last
> >decade to 65.9 years,
> >
> >
> >Women are now expected to bear 1.17 children, down
> from 1.89 in 1990.
>
>
>
> These are massive, massive demographic changes.
>
>
> Chris Burford
>
> London
>


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