Re: RE: Re: oil and socialism

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Ian wrote:
> The issue of time takes on a different form of nefariousness that touches
> on both Yoshie's and Jim's ideas.  The critical issue in innovation is
> time to market and how long one can hold the lead [via property rights
> etc.] before competitors catch up. As the pace of innovation -product life
> cycle- quickens, the level of investment needed to achieve economies of
> scale to sustain an adequate level of demand in order to garner a decent
> rate of return on investment rises enormously. In a macroeconomic context,
> the system becomes addicted to the speed of innovation and the
> implications for stagnation in output per man/woman hour becomes ever
> larger as the speed at which one must keep ahead of ones competition
> quickens. The speed of market saturation is reached more quickly etc...To
> increase, let alone sustain, demand that would justify investment then
> eats into whatever energy
> efficiency gains are made. What does it matter if cars average 50 miles a
> gallon over the next decade if the number of drivers quadruples or greater
> over the next 50? Contra Alan Greenspan, the rate of dematerialization in
> the North is nowhere near offsetting growth in resource use. Hence the
> issue becomes one of seriously putting sand in the gears of the path
> dependency of the "speed economy" which paradoxically has become one [in
> the North] at precisely the time when the middle class professionals that
> make it go are increasingly complaining about gridlock in their
> transportation networks; sclerosis. Thus cell phones! Soon everyone will
> work in their cars :-)!

Let's start with my initial assertion: capitalism is very adaptable, able
to survive hard times. This does not mean that capitalism doesn't drive
itself into disgusting crises every few decades. It does. In fact, I see a
serious realization crisis in the near future of U.S. -- and likely, world
-- capitalism. Environmental crises are happening and will intensify.
Things are going to get worse on a lot of fronts, and are already getting
worse for many people (e.g., Africa). It's even likely that the price of
fossil fuels (before-tax real petrol prices, etc.) will rise dramatically
in the future, even though the current high only looks high because it's
following a 20-year down-trend, since capitalism tends to go to extremes.
The discussion above seems to be an extrapolation based on this notion.

But, as in the past, crises don't automatically lead to capitalism's
demise. We might see a move toward fascism, but the system's elites and
shock troops will fight hard to keep their system going. It's not over 'til
it's over, when there's a sufficient social force to replace capitalism.

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine