Re: Wall St ... again

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

At 01:05 AM 10/19/00 +1000, you wrote:
> G'day all,
>
> Wow!  A DJI at about 9700 all of a sudden - any diagnoses of our moment?  Is
> it the price of oil?  The whispers of junk-bond-exposed investment banks ?
> Lousy tech projections (where it's acroos the board - from chips to dotcoms
> to computers)?
>
> Is there a compelling mainstream explanation abroad yet?

it's a random walk. what goes up must come down. or to paraphrase Shiller,
if the price/earnings ratio is too high, eventually it will revert toward
normality (though likely it will overshoot).

I hope this stills the clamor for putting social security funds into
stocks. But Bush still likes the idea, while Gore didn't mention the
likelihood that the rate of return on stocks would be very low for a few
years.


> And has Abby Joseph Cohen had anything to say this morning?

why should we care?

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine