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Fwd: Stratfor on the fall of Milosevic




from

Stratfor.com's Weekly Analysis dated October 9]


The United States reacted with a new strategy. Described in "Toppling
Milosevic: The Carrot Instead of the Stick,"  the new strategy consisted
of splitting Milosevic from his followers. Cracks opened but were
contained when Milosevic called for elections. But before the election it
became clear Milosevic had nearly trapped himself, as recounted in
"Checkmate in Yugoslavia,".

Milosevic's Cabinet, his cronies and the army and police held the key to
the drama. Milosevic had to be isolated from those levers of power before
the crowds could storm parliament. Thousands could have been killed, as
they were in Romania with the fall of Ceaucescu. Milosevic might cling to
power.

It was imperative the leadership split from Milosevic and accommodate
Kostunica. Public displays of police suddenly embracing demonstrators
probably had less to do with the passions of the moment than with fevered
deals being made between Kostunica and former Milosevic followers. These
deals brought both the peace and the revolution.

The deals also created a revolution with a complex genesis and an
uncertain future.




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