Milosevic out?

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

[was: Re: [PEN-L:2694] Re: Economic revolutions]

Louis wrote:
> This was not a showdown between the Yugoslav government and protestors,
> but one between the Yugoslav government and imperialism. The Sixth Fleet
> scheduled maneuevers off the coast of Montenegro last week just to drive
> that point home.

Can't it be _both_? It's a mistake to focus entirely on either domestic
affairs or on international relations, especially for a small country like
Serbia.

The protestors -- who seemed to have come from all major classes, unlike
previous anti-Milosevic waves, which were primarily based in the urban
middle classes -- were fighting the Yugoslav government, led by a man who
had committed the ultimate sin among nationalists, i.e., losing a war.
(Remember that Kostunica, like Milosevic, is a Serb nationalist.) But the
Yugoslav government was also fighting imperialism, which in this era,
involves the effort to impose a single version of class rule on the world,
i.e., the neo-liberal version of capitalism to benefit the biggest
countries (US/NATO) and the dominant parts of their ruling classes. Deviant
versions of class rule that aren't allied with the big powers and their
rulers aren't allowed. In the spirit of Taylorism, there's only one best
way, and that's the way of the Market!

What that means is that the domestic opposition to Milosevic is likely to
succumb to the "help" it gets from US/NATO, just as US "help" eventually
helped corrupt Solidarity in Poland (and the USSR's "help" during the Cold
War pushed countries like Angola toward top-down bureaucratic rule).
Chances are that any of the class content of the anti-Milosevic movements
will be lost, so that the coal miners and the rebellious police officers
and the disobedient rank-and-file soldiers will soon be shuffled off the
political scene. I would guess that the US Sixth Fleet is there to make
sure that this happens. (After all, the US invaded the Dominican Republic
in 1965 when LBJ heard that the workers there were armed.) Given the
balance of military and economic power, Kostunica's nationalism is likely
to be swamped, too. The popular movements against Milosevic will likely
recede, replaced by anemic parliamentary government, while the power of the
IMF and its allies in the Serbian central bank (which will be given greater
"independence" to fight inflation) will rise.

On the drunkenness of the anti-Milosevic forces: we should remember after
the October revolution, Lenin and Trotsky found themselves dealing with the
mass drunkenness of the victorious workers in Petrograd. I would guess that
all revolutions involving mass mobilizations (as opposed to putsches,
guerilla wars, etc.) include alcohol. Booze gives people the courage to
rebel against the established authority, to go beyond the normal bounds of
politics. It also is encouraged by the moment of liberation itself, as
people celebrate their victories, however temporary.

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine