Re: Re: Re: Recession warnings

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The NYT article also was based on trends, but of rates of change, rather than
levels of activity.  To say the economy is slowing down is not a
discontinuity, but a trend, all be it on a period of time too short to be
able to define it as a definitive trend.

Max Sawicky wrote:

> I'd say recession predicting isn't very interesting, since it's
> so flaky.  More relevant is Wynne Godley's '7 unsustainable
> processes' thingy, which I take to be more a matter of trends
> than discontinuities.  If that proves to be wrong, there would
> seem to be something rotten in what our basic notions of income
> accounting are taken to mean for basic economic trends.
>
> mbs
>
> >       Of course, a slowdown in the economy is not
> >       yet certain. Although Mr. Paulsen expects
> >       growth to average 2 percent in the next 12
> >       months, others don't agree. (Portfolios, Etc.,
> >       Page 8.)
>
> right.    Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx