Re: Re: Recession warnings

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Jim Devine wrote:

> Though I agree with the conclusion, the analysis is weak. Faster
> productivity growth slows employment slowly, over time. When a
> recession hits, productivity growth slows (or even becomes negative)
> as businesses hold onto overhead workers in hopes of future
> profitability.

There are loads of anomalies in the productivity stats. Nondurable
manufacturing productivity is flat; it's all concentrated in
durables, and within durables, in high-tech production. Service
productivity has picked up a bit, but not that profoundly. Looking at
the aggregate number is very misleading.

Doug