Re: leading economic indicators

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Jim Devine wrote:

> One of the better ones is the shape of the Treasury yield curve:
> usually, if short-term interest rates are higher than long-run ones
> (when the yield curve is "inverted"), it's a sign of recession in
> the future. Current tight monetary policy drives up short rates,
> while long rate don't change much, while tight policy encourages
> recession.

Confounding the yield curve this time around is the Treasury's
buyback of outstanding bonds and its non-issuance of new ones.
There's a bond shortage on. Get yours before they disappear.

Doug