rational expectations

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Things are a bit slow on pen-l, so I will put in this note.  It has
double relevance here.  1) It says volumes about the theory of rational
expectations.  2) It may say something about the rhetorical styles on
what I once accidentally called "male" lists.

Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confidence Games: Why Your Self-Esteem Is Probably Too
High." Lingua Franca, 10: 9 (April): p. 68.
 "Overconfidence is nearly universal. In fact, a study some years ago
found that the only group of people free from I -- the only group with a
realistic view of their own capacities -- were the clinically
depressed."
 In widely publicized paper last December's issue of the Journal of
Personality and Social Psychology, David A. Dunning of Cornell and his
graduate student Justin Kruger, found that the most incompetent people
have the most inflated notion of their abilities. "Not only do about
they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their
incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it."
 They administered three tests measuring ability in logic, English
grammar, and humor appreciation (the subjects' rating of jokes were
judged against those of a panel of professional comedians).  In all
three areas, the subjects who did worst were the most likely to "grossly
overestimate" how well they had performed.  Those who scored in the
twelfth percentile in the logic test, for example, imagined that their
skill in logic was at the sixtieth percentile.




--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx