BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JULY 24, 2000

The Midwest again recorded the lowest jobless rate of any of the nation's
four regions, 3.4 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.
In June, the jobless rate stood at 3.8 percent in the Northeast, 3.9 percent
in the South, and 4.6 percent in the West.  The four regions and most states
showed little or no change in jobless rates in June, and the national
unemployment rate slipped 0.1 percentage point to 4 percent.  Forty-five
states noted shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. ...  (Daily Labor
Report, page D-1).

Awaiting final action on their funding requests, the heads of the three
major federal statistics agencies consider possible cuts in key economic
reports, including the gross domestic product, as well as abandoning plans
to better measure electronic commerce, top officials say. ...
Appropriations requests made by the two economic data agencies housed at the
Commerce Department have fared the worst, according to the directors of both
the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.  At the Labor
Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, officials are concerned about
losing proposed funding for several new  initiatives, including a time-usage
survey, and plans to improve producer prices and state employment figures.
It could be September before officials at all three agencies will know for
sure what their budgets are for fiscal year 2001, which begins Oct. 1. ...
BLS Commissioner Abraham said that if BLS receives a funding level closer to
the lower House version of the bill, it will have to scrap plans to initiate
a time usage survey that was a centerpiece of its fiscal 2001 proposal.
Saying she would personally be disappointed to abandon the $4.3 million
project, Abraham noted it has gained support among groups that want to know
more about how American workers spend time in activities such as education,
commuting, child care, and elder care.  Abraham said that BLS would be able
to fund the start of the survey under the Senate funding level, which cuts
the agency's total request by $7 million, instead of the total $14 million
cut by the House.  If the cuts passed by the House prevail, Abraham also
said the bureau would not be able to enhance local area unemployment
statistics as spelled out in the Workforce Investment Act nor would the
agency be able to fund its plan to add a measure of nonresidential
construction to the producer price index, which feeds into the GDP price
indexes. ...  (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page A-10).

With lawmakers likely to turn down the number-crunchers' requests for new
funds, some of the government's existing economic data may have to be pared
back, says Henry J. Pulizzi in The Wall Street Journal (page B19C). ...  In
an era when financial markets scrutinize even the most obscure government
statistical minutiae for insight into the nation's fast-changing economy,
the agencies that calculate these indicators are getting a cold shoulder
from legislators who themselves use the reports to shape policy. ...  An
appropriations bill passed by the House trimmed the Bureau of Economic
Analysis' requested budget by 10 percent.  That would leave the agency
without the $3 million it asked for to keep up with New Economy issues.
"Current BEA resources cannot support major new initiatives," says Barbara
Fraumeni, chief economist at that agency, in a June paper she co-authored
with Marilyn Manser, of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomas
Mesenbourg Jr. of the Census Bureau.  Even some old programs may fall prey
to the BEA's bleak budget picture. ...  Things aren't quite as dire at the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, which Commissioner Katharine Abraham said is
"reasonably well funded."  But bills passed in the House and Senate don't
grant the full $454 million the agency requested for fiscal 2001.  Without
the full request, some of the BLS's new initiatives would have to be pared
back -- the agency hopes to start collecting data next year on how
individuals use their time throughout the working day as well as improve the
producer price index and local area employment statistics. ...

The 2000 census is not over yet, but Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt
already is urging Congress to replace the controversial long form before the
next national count with a monthly survey that would provide timelier and
more accurate data at the same cost.  Before that happens, though, lawmakers
and other witnesses told House hearing last week, census officials must
allay the privacy concerns that prompted some members of Congress to tell
people they did not have to answer long-form questions on income, plumbing,
and other topics.  The bureau is testing the proposed American Community
Survey in several dozen communities and hopes to implement it in every
county by 2003. ...  The proposed survey is "the single most important
innovation in federal household statistics since the middle of the last
century," say Prewitt. ...  (Washington Post, page A21).

Debate over the value and even the existence of the Noninflationary Rate of
Unemployment (NAIRU) has increased in economic circles following Fed
Chairman Greenspan's comments on the subject.  In testimony before the
Senate, Greenspan made his strongest comments yet about his belief that the
once dominant theory of a natural rate of unemployment, a level which when
breached was sure to bring inflation, is no less than antiquated. ...
(Daily Labor Report, page A-12).

Renewed corporate wanderlust puts a quiet brake on salaries. ...  Since
1996, corporate migration within the country has soared, roughly doubling to
more than 1l,000 moves a year, according to Site Selection Magazine of
Atlanta, Ga., the only organization, public or private, to track the
phenomenon.  At the same time, the emphasis has shifted from factories, the
traditional migrants, to every type of service operation, and across a range
of jobs. ...  The increasing restlessness of American business is beginning
to be noticed by economists, government officials, and industry groups. ...
As labor shortages and competition for workers drive up wages in one city,
companies have shifted work or have expanded in another location, where the
same tasks can be done at lower pay. ...  This movement helps to answer one
of the big questions about the recent economy:  How has the U.S. managed to
achieve it lowest unemployment rate since the 1960s and yet not experience
as much upward pressure on wages as it has during past booms?. ...  If lower
labor costs drive the process, technology greases the way. ...  In addition,
the talent pool is more evenly spread across the country in the 1990s than
in earlier generations, said Lawrence F. Katz, a Harvard economist, meaning
"you can find similar labor forces and similar amenities in many more place
in America." ...  (Louis Uchitelle in New York Times, page A1).

A human tidal wage has added one million immigrants to New York City in the
last decade, propelling foreign-born residents to 40 percent of the
population, an analysis of United States Census Bureau figures shows.  That
level of immigration has not been equaled for nearly a century.  As recently
as 1990, the figure for foreign-born residents was 28 percent. The new
figures come from the recently released results of a 15,417 household survey
taken in 1999 by the Census Bureau. That study is done every 3 years to see
if housing vacancies are below 5 percent, the legal threshold for continuing
rent regulations.  Because the sample is large and the bureau conducts the
survey, the data are considered highly reliable.  They jibe with the census,
which is undertaken every 10 years. ...  Although the surge has been evident
for years, its sheer size is stunning. ...  "Absent immigration, we would be
seeing a very different New York, with neighborhood abandonment and
depopulation," says a sociology professor at Hunter College. ...  (New York
Times, page A18).

The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A6) says that
the Employment Cost Index figure for the second quarter, to be released
Thursday, will be up 1.0 percent.  The previous actual figure was up 1.4
percent.

The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved the
nomination of Gordon Heddell to serve as inspector general for the Labor
Department.  Since 1998, Heddell has served as assistant director in the
U.S. Secret Service's Office of Inspection.  He also has worked as a special
agent in charge of the Secret Service's vice presidential protective
division. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page A-14).

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