Iran's Summer of Unrest

[Yoshie Furuhashi <furuhashi.1@xxxxxxx>]

From: "Ulhas Joglekar" <ulhasj@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <marxism@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Iran's Summer of Unrest
Date: Fri, 21 Jul 2000 19:50:53 +0530

Iran's Summer of Unrest
0019 GMT, 000714

Summary

In the midst of a drought and a crippling summer heat wave, Iran is
wracked by protest and violence. But more than a reaction to the
weather or the lack of water, Iranians appear to be reacting to unmet
expectations for progress. President Mohammad Khatami has succeeded
in clearing the way for limited political expression -- like protest
-- but he has not yet improved the country's standard of living. For
the first time, significant numbers of everyday Iranians are aiming
protests at the reformist president.

Analysis

Two men were stabbed July 11 in a fight over drinking water in Qom.
The violence in Iranís most revered religious center was shocking but
not isolated. The stabbing was merely the latest in a string of
protests and violence in Iran. In the midst of a severe drought and
summer heat wave, tension is running high in Iranian society.

Increasingly, this tension is manifesting itself in popular
dissatisfaction with the government of President Mohammad Khatami.
Khatami has been successful in improving the personal freedoms of
Iranians, including the freedom to protest. But Khatami's economic
reforms have not yet taken root, which puts him in a dangerous
situation.

In the last three weeks, Iranians have taken to the streets in
significant numbers. Some 4,000 demonstrators blocked a highway south
of Tehran on June 27 to protest the government's failure to provide
water, electricity and medical care to their district. A week later,
at least three people were killed in a riot in Abadan -- a hub of
Iran's oil industry -- as people demanded clean drinking water,
according to IRNA, the official Iranian news agency.

And on July 8, a student rally meant to mark the first anniversary of
pro-democracy rallies was not only directed at conservative political
factions but at President Khatami himself. Protestors chanted
"Khatami, Khatami, show your power or resign," and "Khatami, this is
the final notice," according to reports published in the London-based
daily, The Guardian.

For the first time, the president himself has been a target of the
protests. Clearly, the summer weather -- reaching up to 122 degrees
Fahrenheit during the day -- is aggravating conditions, but Iranians
are taking to the streets in more significant numbers than ever
before, just to protest basic living conditions.

Before this year, there was only one major drought protest, in 1995.
Protestors were severely repressed by security forces, which
reportedly killed dozens and arrested at least 800. The most recent
protests were met with force, but the body counts were much lower, as
police appeared to pull punches.

The protests highlight Khatami's dilemma. His political reforms have
been relatively successful. Open dissent is grudgingly tolerated, and
reformist newspapers pop up as fast as conservative factions can
close them. But the presidentís economic reforms have yet to get off
the ground. Until this year, a conservative parliament blocked much
of his economic legislation, and foreign investors have been
reluctant to set up shop. Officially, unemployment hovers around 15
percent; unofficial numbers are nearly double that.

Khatami's problem is one of unmet expectations. Iranians elected him
in 1997 in a landslide, because he promised to open society and fix
the economy. Last winter, voters gave him a parliamentary majority.
And the price of oil -- which makes up the lion's share of Iranís GDP
-- has been more than $25 a barrel since last November.

But the president is unable to meet popular expectations as quickly
as they rise. Iran still has a crumbling infrastructure and polluted
waters; in Abadan, people were protesting because the water is too
salty to drink. The water has always been salty, actually. But now
the people have the means to express anger.

Khatami is in a tough situation. At the strategic level, conservative
factions of the clergy, still entrenched in the judiciary and the
bureaucracy, hamper him. At a tactical level, the president doesn't
have a good way to pacify the people. Khatami can't simply buy more
water, the way the United States can buy more oil. Simply suppressing
the protestors will undermine his credibility. This gives
conservatives ample opportunity to press the advantage.

Hemmed in by his own ideology, and facing pressure from inside and
outside the government, Khatami has little choice but to bear down on
his agenda. He will try to keep oil prices high and increase foreign
investment, while hoping that his credibility with Iranians does not
run out. Without a lifting of sanctions and a wave of foreign
investment, his time is short, and his prospects dim.

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