Re: Re: Keeping focus after the WTO

["Patrick Bond" <pbond@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Again, Southern Africa's industrialisation shows precisely the
opposite. To take just the most recent case, the most rigorous
factor analysis of Zimbabwe's 1966-74 growth (9.5% p.a., with
industry up from 23 to 31% of GDP) -- a period of anti-Rhodesian
sanctions and massive financial repression (the West's most
effective exchange controls ever) -- is by Roger Riddell of Overseas
Development Institute ("Manufacturing Africa," London, ODI, 1990):
effective demand increases (possible only because of capital
controls) were responsible for 60% of mfg growth; import
substitution for 31%; exports for 9%.

(The other key factor that allowed this to happen, which I talk about
at some length in Uneven Zimbabwe: A Study of Finance,
Development and Underdevelopment -- Trenton, Africa World
Press, 1998 -- is capitalist class cohesion.)

On 11 Dec 99, at 12:49, Rod Hay wrote:
> We all want the poorer countries to have more. But, we are not sure about
> how to go about it. I think we need more trade, more technological
> transfer, etc. The question is how do we get that. Freer trade is one
> possibility. But it has its dangers. Barkley suggested increased trade
> with controls on capital flows. But capital flows are the one of the
> surest way to get technological transfer.