[PEN-L:11432] Re: Re: [Fwd: Fw: EH.R: Kondratieff Cycles]

["Charles Brown" <CharlesB@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>>> Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx> 09/21/99 02:06PM >>>
Charles Brown wrote:

>Charles: Some questions for the answers:
>
>Why is the whole region of East Asia looked at to determine whether
>there is a recession ?  Maybe there was a recession in Indonesia but
>not one in China. Isn't one conventional defiintion something like
>negative growth for four or five straight quarters in one country ?
>Why is the period of measure a decade ?

It was Frank's choice, not mine. He claimed a decade-long world
depression. There's no evidence for that. The conventional definition
is two consecutive quarters of real decline in GDP in one country.

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Charles: I see

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>Over the history of recording recession/depresions aren't some of
>them in individual countries and some world or regional ? One
>commentator says the first crisis of overproduction broke out in
>Britain in 1825. The 1847-48 crisis which embraced the U.S. and some
>European countries was the first world or regional crisis. Aren't
>crises of different geographical reaches and for different lengths
>,including a year or so, in length ?  If the time period is
>stretched long enough and an average taken , most crises can be
>averaged away. This is especially so if the time period is stretched
>to a decade. Even the Great Depression of `1929 to 1933 might be
>averaged away if the decade is 1923 to 1933 ?

Yes, you're right. Ask Andre Gunder Frank why he chose to make the
period a decade.

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Charles: I see. I'll send him a copy of this


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>Can China, with a very mixed economy, be considered on a full
>capitalist business cycle ? Can its growth be credited to the world
>capitalist system ?

They've certainly become at least partly capitalist, have opened
partly to foreign investment, and depend heavily on exports for
growth.

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Charles: Isn't it interesting how China often breaks up the conventional categories, not just on this issue ,but many others.


CB