[PEN-L:11430] Re: Re: [Fwd: Fw: EH.R: Kondratieff Cycles]

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Charles Brown wrote:

> Charles: Some questions for the answers:
>
> Why is the whole region of East Asia looked at to determine whether
> there is a recession ?  Maybe there was a recession in Indonesia but
> not one in China. Isn't one conventional defiintion something like
> negative growth for four or five straight quarters in one country ?
> Why is the period of measure a decade ?

It was Frank's choice, not mine. He claimed a decade-long world
depression. There's no evidence for that. The conventional definition
is two consecutive quarters of real decline in GDP in one country.

> Over the history of recording recession/depresions aren't some of
> them in individual countries and some world or regional ? One
> commentator says the first crisis of overproduction broke out in
> Britain in 1825. The 1847-48 crisis which embraced the U.S. and some
> European countries was the first world or regional crisis. Aren't
> crises of different geographical reaches and for different lengths
> ,including a year or so, in length ?  If the time period is
> stretched long enough and an average taken , most crises can be
> averaged away. This is especially so if the time period is stretched
> to a decade. Even the Great Depression of `1929 to 1933 might be
> averaged away if the decade is 1923 to 1933 ?

Yes, you're right. Ask Andre Gunder Frank why he chose to make the
period a decade.

> Can China, with a very mixed economy, be considered on a full
> capitalist business cycle ? Can its growth be credited to the world
> capitalist system ?

They've certainly become at least partly capitalist, have opened
partly to foreign investment, and depend heavily on exports for
growth.

Doug