[PEN-L:8819] US government budget surplus

[Jim Devine <jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

from SLATE, 7/3/99: >The [Washington Post] runs a hilarious editorial
satirizing the  (over-)confidence of federal budget forecasters, who
recently predicted surpluses well into the next century. The Post applies
"similar forecasting methods" to Richard  Hamilton, the first-round draft
pick of the NBA's Washington Wizards. Since Hamilton's points-per-game
increased by 35 percent over last two years, the Post writes, he should be
at 50 points-per-game in another five. "In addition, there is the growth
factor: In only 21 years, the recruit has gone from practically zero to
six-foot-six. Taking account of today's favorable climate for growth, it
can be safely predicted that by the middle years of his long-term contract,
Mr. Hamilton will have  attained a height of 11 1/2 feet." <

I've asked this before, but what _is_ the basis for the US government's
predictions of continued budget surpluses into the 21st century? Max? Dave
Richardson?

Also, while I'm on the topic of official stats, the Clintonoids brag about
the rise in home-ownership by the poor and minorities. But what are the
stats on the _quality_ of such home-ownership, e.g., the share of equity in
the total price of the house? Have lending standards been cut to promote
home ownership? Has this contributed to rising consumer debt ratios?

Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx &
http://clawww.lmu.edu/Faculty/JDevine/JDevine.html