[PEN-L:8336] Re: [Fwd: Australia]

[Rob Schaap <carob@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

G'day Pen-pals,

Superficial responses to the Stratfor Report on Oz policy in the region
below.

"The talks between Australia and North Korea
represent, in part, a growing diplomatic initiative being
undertaken by North Korea.  However, they are also reflective of
the proactive steps Australia is beginning to take as the balance
of power in Asia starts to shift."

['Proactive' is too kind.  The appearance here is one of sudden and
desperate efforts on all fronts by all agencies to all effects.  Ultimately,
my bet is we're relying on a return to familiar cold-war formations and a
return to Unca Sam's fatherly care.  More below.]

"With Suharto's
resignation in the wake of violent public demonstrations, the
status quo embraced by the Australian government was shattered.
With the uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's general election and
the offer of independence for East Timor, there was suddenly the
very real danger of a major breakdown in social stability in
Indonesia. Its populous neighbor facing potential meltdown alone
would have been enough to worry Australia, but this was
compounded by a growing shift in the alignment of powers in
northeast Asia."

[The news presentation of all this tends to focus on the danger of illegal
immigrants.  And Howard has already publicly bemoaned the cost of long-term
peace-keeping and aid programmes - as is his way.]

"Rather than wait for events to
happen, Australia has embarked on a two-part strategy to retain
its security."

[That's putting it too neatly.  We're trying absolutely everything - Oz
suits are traversing the region like a flock of headless chooks.]

"Australia's initial response was to attempt to take the
initiative in Indonesia, in controlling the situation in East
Timor.  Australia reversed its long-held stance of Indonesian
sovereignty over East Timor, instead backing a referendum on
independence in the territory. "

[Actually, the government came to this party very recently.  They scoffed at
this right up to the moment Suharto fell.  Even three months ago, Foreign
Minister Downer still loudly favoured some sort of
'autonomy-within-Indonesia' model (whatever that means).  The Opposition
made a lot of noise at the time and clearly this resonated with the
electorate.  So the government has joined in.  It won't send peace-keepers
yet (which might have made a difference three months ago, before Gusmao felt
moved to call his independence people to arms in self-defence), won't pursue
the question of Indonesia's murder of Oz journalists in 1975 (a very sore
point in Oz), won't agree publicly that the Indonesian army is visibly
helping its integrationist militias terrorose and murder independence
people, and won't allow its senior people to go have a look (Downer went to
Dili for a few hours to talk the other day, but was caught watching the
World Cuop cricket at Lords in London only hours after that).  We're talking
the talk to a degree, but everybody knows we're not about to walk the walk.
And they're meant to.  And we're getting a LOT of features about the need
for better defence systems against illegal immigrants, too.]

"to contain China,
either through halting the deterioration of U.S.-Chinese
relations or through building its own good relations with China
and with states on China's periphery."

[To the surprise of some, the very ethnocentric and introverted discourse of
the government was instantly belied by ongoing diplomatic supplications to
Beijing.  Relations have seemed good, too.  Of course, the Chinese big boys
know they're playing with real amateurs - PM Howard, Deputy Fisher and
Foreign Minister Downer are wide-eyed virgins in the woods by comparison
(Labor had a far superior team in terms of sophistication and personal
relations, and even then got steam-rolled by all our northern neighbours
when push came to shove).  Anyway, I think the job of selling the facts of
our geography and likely economic prospects to the Oz electorate has largely
been done (partly by the previous Labor government, but mostly by
circumstance).  We still resent Asian 60-cents-per-hour labourers, but we
smile politely to Asian suits nowadays.  When the Hansonites came forth with
their xenophobic ravings, they were roundly rebuked and ridiculed from all
sides (although Howard did take a good while to join in - but then he was a
loud opponent of 'Asian' immigration as recently as 1988) - but generally
rebuked for their economic treachery, not their naked racism.]

"Australia also openly accepted the Japan-U.S. defense cooperation
agreement, offering its understanding for the passage despite the
strong concerns expressed by other Asian nations."

[Both major parties were all for it.  We're doing a bit of rearming
ourselves, too.  Albeit with new home-built (but Swedish-designed)
submarines that apparently suffer from the not-so-insignificant tactical
problem of sounding like Deep Purple concerts when in battle trim.  We've
also spent a fortune on literally rusted-out American surface-ships and new
(US-imported) avionics for those trusty ol' F1-11s.]

"Simultaneously, Australia is promoting greater cooperation and
ties with China, most notably in the military arena.  In February
1998, Chinese Defense Minister Chi Hoatan made his first visit to
Australia, followed shortly thereafter by the visit of three
Chinese Navy warships to Sydney harbor.  Australian Defense
Minister John Moore returned the visit in May 1999, marking the
first visit of an Australian Defense Minister to China since the
countries established diplomatic ties in 1972."

[Not stuff the mainstream media has found particularly significant.  Funny
this, it was socdem PM Paul Keating's striving for Asian strategic/economic
integration that the Liberals (an Australian word for social reactionaries
with a radical free market agenda - close to the 'Manchester Liberal' of
English parlance - they're our Tories, anyway) used to good effect to
tarnish Keating's government during the '96 election - which the latter lost
by light-years.  But, yeah, government is worried and is trying everything -
suddenly with loud prompting from big  and wannabe-big business.  It's a
scatter-gun approach that pays no particular mind to internal
contradictions.  They're trying to find out what'll work, and they're in a
hurry.  They are pissing their beds, and no mistake.]

"a more aggressive approach
to its Asian foreign policy will not be without difficulties in
overcoming 30 years of complacency in allowing the U.S. and other
Western powers to deal with North-East Asia.  The potentially
destabilizing situation in Indonesia and the strategic
realignment of China and Russia has led to a redefinition of
Australia's operational theater in Asia in relation to its
strategic and security concerns.  And unless Australia succeeds
in reviving U.S. security interest in the region, its
unaccustomed role may also begin to tax Australian resources."

[I suspect Australia will be pretty interesting to the US already.  I doubt
the US has not embarked on throwing Russia and China into each other's arms
lightly.  Surely, they'd have a 'Son-of-Cold-War' scenario in mind by now?
Trade Minister (and deputy PM) Tim Fisher's mission to the US, to try yet
again to get the Yanks to play the agricultural free trade game according to
the rules they impose on others might be interesting from that point of
view.  How harsh will Fisher's rhetoric be if he is, as we all expect, to be
disappointed?  Can Washington afford the domestic price of rewarming Oz/Yank
relations by actually allowing the unsubsidised Australian producers a fair
go?]

Cheers,
Rob.