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- Subject: Australia
- From: "alert@xxxxxxxxxxxx" <alert@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jun 1999 22:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
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STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
June 25, 1999
Australia Shift to a More Aggressive Asian Foreign Policy
Summary:
Australia and North Korea will hold their highest level talks in
25 years on June 25 in Bangkok. The meeting, being held at the
request of North Korea, will cover regional security issues, aid
and visas for North Korean athletes to attend the 2000 Olympics
in Sydney. While the talks are, in part, a reflection of North
Korea's recent diplomatic surge, they also point to Australia's
increasingly active foreign policy in Asia. Australia has been
looking warily north since the fall of former Indonesian
President Suharto last year, and is growing concerned at the
prospect of Indonesia disintegrating just as China, with the
support of Russia, becomes more assertive in the region.
Analysis:
The head of the North Asia division of the Australian Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Colin Heseltine, will meet with the
head of the Asia-Pacific Affairs section of the North Korean
Foreign Ministry in Bangkok on June 25. The meeting will
represent the highest level talks between Australia and North
Korea since 1975. An Australian government official said of the
meeting, "This is actually the first time we've had talks with
officials from capitals attending, rather than embassy
officials." The talks were initiated at the request of North
Korea, and will cover issues ranging from aid and regional
security to visas for North Korean athletes to attend the 2000
Olympics in Sydney. The talks between Australia and North Korea
represent, in part, a growing diplomatic initiative being
undertaken by North Korea. However, they are also reflective of
the proactive steps Australia is beginning to take as the balance
of power in Asia starts to shift.
Australia's complacency toward Asia was interrupted with the
sudden downfall of former Indonesian President Suharto last year.
For Australia, Suharto's Indonesia had served as an iron barrier
between Australia and Asia -- particularly China -- and the
Australian government largely remained unopposed to the
activities of Australia's neighbor to the north. With Suharto's
resignation in the wake of violent public demonstrations, the
status quo embraced by the Australian government was shattered.
With the uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's general election and
the offer of independence for East Timor, there was suddenly the
very real danger of a major breakdown in social stability in
Indonesia. Its populous neighbor facing potential meltdown alone
would have been enough to worry Australia, but this was
compounded by a growing shift in the alignment of powers in
northeast Asia.
With the growing relationship between China and Russia moving
closer to a formal alliance, Australia was faced with an image
from the past, when Indonesian instability was instigated and
heightened by Chinese influence prior to Suharto's assumption of
power. For Australia, the potential destabilization of Indonesia
coupled with the re-emergence of China as a dominant and
potentially aggressive regional player presented the worst case
scenario for the nation's security. Faced with these
simultaneous events, Australia has begun a dramatic shift in its
own foreign policy stance. Rather than wait for events to
happen, Australia has embarked on a two-part strategy to retain
its security.
Australia's initial response was to attempt to take the
initiative in Indonesia, in controlling the situation in East
Timor. Australia reversed its long-held stance of Indonesian
sovereignty over East Timor, instead backing a referendum on
independence in the territory. Australia has become the base of
operations for the United Nations police consultation mission in
East Timor, and has heightened the alert of its troops on the
northern border. Australian officials have taken direct steps to
involve themselves in the planning and implementation of the East
Timor referendum, as well as the general election.
The second phase of Australia's strategy is to contain China,
either through halting the deterioration of U.S.-Chinese
relations or through building its own good relations with China
and with states on China's periphery. As the deterioration in
Sino-American relations is only accelerating, Australia has
focused on the latter approach. In late May, Australia and South
Korea announced a series of meetings to prepare for and initiate
joint naval military exercises to be held next year. Australia
has readily accepted the offer by North Korea to meet for talks.
Australia also openly accepted the Japan-U.S. defense cooperation
agreement, offering its understanding for the passage despite the
strong concerns expressed by other Asian nations.
Simultaneously, Australia is promoting greater cooperation and
ties with China, most notably in the military arena. In February
1998, Chinese Defense Minister Chi Hoatan made his first visit to
Australia, followed shortly thereafter by the visit of three
Chinese Navy warships to Sydney harbor. Australian Defense
Minister John Moore returned the visit in May 1999, marking the
first visit of an Australian Defense Minister to China since the
countries established diplomatic ties in 1972.
Australia's Asian foreign policy is now reaching far beyond its
shores. Its forays into East Asia stretch well beyond its
earlier bounds of activity. However, a more aggressive approach
to its Asian foreign policy will not be without difficulties in
overcoming 30 years of complacency in allowing the U.S. and other
Western powers to deal with North-East Asia. The potentially
destabilizing situation in Indonesia and the strategic
realignment of China and Russia has led to a redefinition of
Australia's operational theater in Asia in relation to its
strategic and security concerns. And unless Australia succeeds
in reviving U.S. security interest in the region, its
unaccustomed role may also begin to tax Australian resources.
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