[PEN-L:8214] Nicaragua and Yugoslavia

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

A.M. Rosenthal, NY Times, Aug. 21, 1987

As for the Sandinistas, they are putting police dogs on the opposition and
muttering that if the world does not give them more oil they may not go in
for democracy after all. No surprise; no sensible believer in political
freedom would base negotiations on conversion of Sandinistas to democracy.
This is where we are: We can decide that we will not consider serious
negotiations and instead wait for the contras to wipe out the Sandinistas
and hold a victory parade in Managua. One famous expert on contras has said
publicly that this would not happen: Oliver North.

Or we can decide that one day the Sandinistas, because of a collapsing
economy, contra pressure and internal unrest, will be ready to agree to
proposals that would open Nicaraguan politics to representatives of the
opposition, including contras, free the press and other prisoners and
create the conditions for a real election.

There are officials in Washington who feel that the time is not yet -that
another year of fighting is necessary. That would mean another year of
Nicaraguan deaths that might be avoided if real talks started now.

But trust in Sandinistas, who have worked desperately to turn Nicaragua
into a Communist state, can never be the basis of a peace settlement meant
to bring democracy.

The basis will be the belief that once the Sandinistas have been forced
into a real liberalization they will not be able to reverse it without
igniting a revolution, and that therefore the anti-Sandinistas of
Nicaragua, left, center and right, will have a decent chance to compete
with the Sandinistas in a free election.

=====

Anthony Lewis, NY Times, May 15, 1999

NATO has plans for what it calls an opposed ground entry into Kosovo, and
experts are updating them. What is needed now is a decision to begin a
process that will take months: mobilizing the 60,000 to 100,000 troops
needed, getting them to the military theater and training them.

To give that signal would be difficult politically, and not just for
President Clinton. The German Government is divided, the Italians
reluctant. But if Mr. Clinton said yes, his decision would have a
transforming effect on other NATO members. The British and French publics,
according to polls, already favor the use of ground forces in Kosovo.

A move toward ground forces would concentrate Slobodan Milosevic's mind
wonderfully. He is already showing signs of being rattled. His ploy with
Jesse Jackson and peace hints from some of his close supporters suggest
that he wants to find a way out that he could call a draw -- and that would
leave his internal position unimpaired.

Mr. Milosevic has bet for eight years that he could outlast and outmaneuver
Western critics. So far he has won. If President Clinton's will matches his
words, Mr. Milosevic will not win this time. He will end his political life
as an indicted war criminal.

====

Washington Post, October 3, 1988

According to Carlos Leonel Arguello, director of the Nicaraguan Health
Ministry's department of hygiene and epidemiology, the government now is
battling to "contain the deterioration" in the health sector following
dramatic improvements after the Sandinistas came to power in 1979.

Arguello said that by 1986, the government had succeeded in reducing the
infant mortality rate to 64.5 per 1,000 live births, half the rate under
dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1977 but still three times higher than that of
neighboring Costa Rica.

Hospital wards crowded with children suffering from diarrhea and
malnutrition suggest that the rate may be creeping up again. Arguello said
a recent survey indicated that roughly 40 percent of Nicaraguan children
younger than 6 years old -- an age group that accounts for about 20 percent
of the country's 3 million population -- are suffering from malnutrition.

The government blames these ills, and the country's economic mess in
general, chiefly on the war with the U.S.-backed contras and on American
"economic aggression," including a trade embargo.

Nicaraguan opposition leaders, however, charge that the fault lies as much,
if not more, with economic mismanagement and a continuing buildup of the
military, which accounts for more than 60 percent of the budget.

With its penchant for state control and its long-range aim of "building
socialism," these critics say, the Marxist-oriented government has
frightened away private investment, precipitated a brain drain of
experienced managers and generally subordinated economic decisions to
political considerations.

Perhaps the most criticized aspect of the Sandinista economy -- one that
has exasperated even Nicaragua's Soviet backers -- has been a crazy-quilt
pricing system. Through subsidized imports and politically determined
access to the most favorable of a multitude of exchange rates, this system
has allowed state farms, for example, to buy Soviet Bloc tractors for less
than $ 100 -- far below the cost of making minor repairs to old ones.

====

NY Times, July 18, 1996

United Nations sanctions against Serbia were suspended after the Dayton
accord but can be reimposed for noncompliance with the treaty. On the
positive side, Mr. Holbrooke can offer to formally end the sanctions,
lifting the cloud of uncertainty that might deter international investors.

Since the suspension of sanctions last December, there has been little
improvement in the Serbian economy, largely because of the determination of
Mr. Milosevic, a former Communist, to keep state controls and his refusal
to allow privatization.

But daily life has regained a modicum of normality. Families no longer
hoard oil, sugar and other foodstuffs and gasoline, previously sold on the
roadside by black marketeers, is more easily available.

====

Los Angeles Times, November 14, 1990

In a landmark pact with the Sandinista opposition after six months of
sparring, Nicaragua's new government has won acceptance for much of its
free-market economic agenda in exchange for shelving a drastic
anti-inflation plan to lay off at least 10,000 public employees.

The accord, signed last month by Sandinista unions that paralyzed the
nation with a violent July strike, is described by government and
opposition leaders as a partial settlement of the nation's postwar struggle
between revolutionary Sandinista economics and American-sponsored capitalism.

But while moving to appease urban Sandinista workers, the government of
President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro faces a growing rural challenge from
the right. Hundreds of former Contras, who disarmed after her election
achieved their goal of ending Sandinista rule, have sealed off half the
country's main east-west highway with roadblocks to protest continued
Sandinista control of the military and the government's failure to give
them promised farmland.

====

June 10, 1998 G8 Stability Pact for Yugoslavia

The Stability Pact aims at strengthening countries in South Eastern Europe
in their efforts to foster peace, democracy, respect for human rights and
economic prosperity, in order to achieve stability in the whole region.
Those countries in the region who seek integration into Euro-Atlantic
structures, alongside a number of other participants in the Pact, strongly
believe that the implementation of this process will facilitate their
objective. . .

To that end we pledge to cooperate towards:

--creating vibrant market economies based on sound macro policies, markets
open to greatly expanded foreign trade and private sector investment,
effective and transparent customs and commercial/regulatory regimes,
developing strong capital markets and diversified ownership, including
privatisation, leading to a widening circle of prosperity for all our
citizens;

--fostering economic cooperation in the region and between the region and
the rest of Europe and the world, including free trade areas; promoting
unimpeded contacts among citizens;

====

Los Angeles Times, June 3, 1990

The Washington summit, the first superpower meeting of the post-Cold War
era, has seen relations between the United States and the Soviet Union
begin a historic transformation -- away from almost half a century of
frozen enmity toward an active willingness to help each other.

The two countries still have major differences over several fundamental
issues. But what has been new at this summit is how quickly the suspicions
nurtured over 40 years of hostility have dissipated -- and how clear it is
that President Bush and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev have decided
that mutual support is in their own self-interest.

"We are proceeding from the assumption that anything that is not good for
the United States . . . will not be good for us either," Gorbachev declared
over and over in a startlingly blunt distillation of his new foreign policy.

"We've passed the stage of confrontation," he said. "We are still in a
period of rivalry, but the signs of partnership have appeared already."

Bush echoed the Soviet president's view. "Not long ago, some believed that
the weight of history condemned our two great countries, our two great
peoples, to permanent confrontation," Bush said, as the two presidents
announced 14 agreements ranging from nuclear arms to trade.

"Well, you and I must challenge history," he said to Gorbachev, ". . .
(and) build a relationship of lasting cooperation."

These grand promises have already borne concrete results -- with political
payoffs for both presidents. Earlier this year, in response to American
requests, Gorbachev helped Bush out of a jam in Central America by
pressuring the leftist Sandinistas in Nicaragua to hold free elections.

Now, at the Washington summit, Bush has returned the favor. On Friday, he
gave Gorbachev the benefit of the doubt by signing a trade agreement that
the Soviet leader wanted -- without waiting for all the concessions from
Moscow that some U.S. conservatives demanded. A delighted Gorbachev said he
appreciated the decision because it will help his efforts to launch "a
dramatic change of direction in the Soviet economy, which is crucial for
the future of perestroika," his reform program.

====

Christian Science Monitor, June 21, 1999

Like a couple reconciled after a spat, Russia and the Western powers made
up at a summit yesterday with pledges of renewed partnership after the
Kosovo episode.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin bear-hugged his counterparts from the G-7
industrialized powers, who spoke glowingly of mutual gain and respect.

If there is one thing NATO's war in the Balkans shows, analysts say, it is
that Russia and the West feel they need each other. And more important -
that Russia needs the West more.

Russia played an important brokering role in securing the end of the bomb
attacks on Yugoslavia. And the West wants Russia's inclusion in any
European security arrangement.

"We can't create or guarantee peace in Europe without Russia," German
Chancellor Gerhard Schrder said at a news conference yesterday in Cologne.

But observers point out that Moscow backtracked on every major principle it
had insisted on during the 11-week bombardment, because it needs Western
aid to stave off economic collapse.

"It was clear Russia would relent," says Sergei Chugrov, deputy editor of
the journal International Relations, published in Moscow. "The government
needs that money."


Louis Proyect

(http://www.panix.com/~lnp3/marxism.html)