[PEN-L:6820] Re: Re: Re: Re: Gregor Gysi letter to Slobodan Milosevic

[Rob Schaap <rws@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

G'day Barkley,

You write:

>      Social forces are obviously important, but would
>World War II in Europe happened if Adolf Hitler had died
>in World War I?

Keynes hadn't heard of Hitler when he forecast big trouble as a consequence
of Versailles' impact on German socio-economic prospects - not a WW,
perhaps, but blood and tears for sure.

For mine, I don't reckon Hitler's 'lebensraum' notion was initially all
that ambitious.  Sure, he'd voiced some big ideas - but I reckon he'd
quietly have pulled his head in somewhere between Austria '38 and Poland
'39 had circumstances been but slightly otherwise than they were.  Any
populist German leader (and the late twenties there were absolutely crying
out for one) would have considered the political virtues of grabbing back
that chunk of Poland denied them by that country's unilateral denial of the
(1921?) plebiscite.  A whole complex of factors would then have determined
whether a world war would ensue (and on which side various countries would
have been - said populist could as easily have aligned himself with the
established left, for a start - likely bringing both the USSR and the USA
into the business a lot earlier, only on opposite sides - in which
circumstance Japan's alliance options by 1941 would have looked very
different - but I'm getting carried away).

Only half-thoughts, but I do think the hour necessarily precedeth the man.

Cheers,
Rob.