[PEN-L:6635] Embassy Attack Fallout

["Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

My view is that Sasser is over-optimistic, but that is an ambassador's
job.
The violence will subside, because China realizes it would not be in its
interest to project a picture of losing control over domestic order, but
the demonstrations will continue until the US/NATO accedes to China's 4
demands of apology, open investigation, public release of findings and
punishment of those responsible.
China has downgraded the official visit of the German Chancellor from
one week to one day.
Chinese foreign and defense policies will face fundamental review with
long range consequences.
To China, its policies of the past decades has gradually led to the US
treatment of China as a weak nation with no consequence.  US judgment
that the growing Chinese trade surplus with the US entitles the US to
bully China is deeply resented by China.  The China leadership cannot
afford to allow the US to downgrade its hard earned status as a
legitimate major power, and cannot afford to appear to the Chinese
people as betraying the interest of the nation, regardless of
sophisticated logic of realpolitik and economic considerations.
This undeniable development will tilt in favor of forces within China
that pressure for a change in policy.

On the other side, US Congressional pressure to deny in June China MFN
(Most Favored Nation) trading status has gained momentum.
The anti-China and anti-Clinton's China Policy manuveours will not
subside until after the yr 2k election, by which time Chinese review of
its pro-US policy would have been solidified.

Henry C.K. Liu

Envoy Says China Dispute Won't Last

                     By GEORGE GEDDA Associated Press Writer

                     WASHINGTON (AP) -- Holed up in the U.S.
                     Embassy in China as a virtual prisoner for four
                     days, Ambassador James Sasser nonetheless
                     believes the flap over the mistaken U.S. bombing of

                     the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade is an aberration
                     that the two sides will overcome.

                     ``I think wiser heads will prevail on both sides,
and
                     both sides will move forward and continue to build
a
                     partnership,'' Sasser said Monday night on CNN's
                     ``Larry King Live'' program.

                     Sasser said he is encouraged by signs of a Chinese
                     willingness for the first time to permit the media
to
                     publish U.S. expressions of condolences over the
                     loss of life in Belgrade and the apologies of
                     President Clinton and other senior officials.

                     But Chinese President Jiang Zemin has yet to accept

                     a telephone call from Clinton, and other Chinese
                     officials are continuing to cast doubt on the
                     American claim that last week's bombing was an
                     accident.

                     In the first direct fallout on the fragile
U.S.-Chinese
                     military relationship, Beijing canceled a planned
visit
                     next week by Gen. Charles Krulak, commandant of
                     the Marine Corps, and ``put on hold'' virtually all

                     military-to-military cooperation with the United
                     States, U.S. defense officials said today.

                     Defense Secretary William Cohen's planned trip to
                     China in June now appears unlikely, officials said,

                     although Cohen said Monday, ``Much will depend
                     upon whether the Chinese government wishes to
                     have me travel there.'' He said he wanted to
                     strengthen defense ties, ``but that depends upon
the
                     Chinese government.''

                     China's ambassador to the United States, Li Zhao
                     Xing, said on CNN: ``Some people are saying this is

                     a mistake. ... How could they make such an error?''

                     He demanded a ``thoroughgoing investigation'' into
                     the incident.

                     The situation improved today, Sasser said. ``We are

                     not getting nearly as many rocks thrown at us and
                     the crowds are much smaller,'' he said on NBC's
                     ``Today.''

                     ``I think it is clear that we have to move rapidly
to
                     give China a clear and cogent explanation'' how the

                     bombing mistake occurred, Sasser said.

                     Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering,
                     interviewed immediately after Sasser, was asked
                     when the United States would provide that
                     explanation.

                     ``Yesterday,'' he replied, referring to Defense
                     Secretary William Cohen's statement Monday. ``We
                     responded with great speed and made clear to the
                     Chinese that this was a tragic mistake,'' Pickering

                     said. He would not rule out further explanations,
                     adding, ``We are continuing our review.''

                     Sasser, a former Democratic senator from
                     Tennessee, said he has remained at the embassy
                     because the Chinese police were unable to guarantee

                     his safety. He said his wife and son were moved to
                     safety in a hotel.

                     One reason for his optimism, Sasser said, was that
                     the Chinese government, after initially condoning
the
                     mass demonstrations at the embassy and at U.S.
                     consulates, is now making a strong effort to
contain
                     them.

                     There was little doubt, though, that the bombing in

                     Belgrade, which killed three Chinese and seriously
                     wounded six, left Sino-American relations at a low
                     ebb.

                     Among the early casualties were high-level military

                     ties as well as talks on arms control,
international
                     security and human rights. China suspended
                     contacts in all these areas Monday.

                     Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a candidate for
                     president, said he would take a tough line with
                     China, asking officials to use their security
forces to
                     prevent attacks on the U.S. Embassy.

                     ``I would call up the premier of China and say,
                     `Stop it and stop it right now,''' he said. ``We
have
                     apologized, it's tragic, now it's over.''

                     McCain said he would not threaten China, but
                     would ``certainly make it clear there are a whole
lot
                     of issues we need to work together on,'' such as
                     trade.

                     Another Republican presidential candidate,
                     commentator Pat Buchanan, said China's response
                     to the accident was not that of a friend but rather
of
                     ``an antagonistic and hostile regime spoiling for a

                     quarrel.''

                     The incident placed a fresh burden on a
relationship
                     already straining under the weight of U.S.
allegations
                     of Chinese nuclear spying, illegal campaign
                     contributions, a widening trade deficit in China's
                     favor and American complaints about China's
                     human rights performance.

                     Clinton has said his efforts to reach out to China
                     have paid dividends.


                     Among other advances, Clinton says U.S. ties with
                     China helped his administration negotiate a nuclear

                     freeze with North Korea five years ago and
                     persuade China to stop selling weapons-related
                     nuclear materials to Pakistan and Iran.

                     While deeply disturbed by the bombing of a building

                     erroneously thought to be a Yugoslav military
                     installation, U.S. officials said they were
displeased
                     with aspects of the Chinese government's response.

                     State Department spokesman James Rubin said the
                     administration was troubled by what he described as

                     clear Chinese government sponsorship of the
                     demonstrations, in which bricks and concrete were
                     heaved at embassy buildings and cars.

                     Rubin also said it was ``extremely unfortunate''
that
                     China's government-controlled media have kept
                     information from the Chinese people about the
                     expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Kosovo
                     Albanians from Yugoslavia while focusing instead
                     on NATO mishaps that have led to the unintentional
                     killing of civilians.


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