[PEN-L:6074] Re: Poverty Rate Note

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Tim Stroshane wrote:

>Doug, in looking at your U.S. poverty rate time series, it looks
>more like the poverty rate peaked in 1993 and then began to
>decline, albeit in a somewhat "sticky" fashion.  It doesn't look
>like poverty has increased with the growth we've been seeing.
>This seems on its face rather consistent with what economists
>would predict coming out of a recession - labor markets would
>become increasingly saturated, and even poorer-skilled workers
>would find employment and be lifted out of poverty.
>
>As a housing and homeless policy planner in Berkeley, I observe a
>more complicated picture (as I know many others on this list
>would suggest).

There are lots of flaws with the U.S. poverty line. I'm not here to defend
it. Either a relative income concept, or an updated market basket concept,
or surveys of public opinion about what would constitute a poverty line -
all would place the bar much higher than it is now, resulting in a poverty
rate 1.5-2 times the present level. I was just taking exception to Max's
claim. The rate did come down very slowly in this cycle (though the black
poverty rate is the lowest on record).

Doug