[PEN-L:5108] Canadian from Macedonia

[phillp2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (ts99u-2.cc.umanitoba.ca [130.179.154.225]) by]

This was sent to me from a friend who received it from a Canadian
working for the World Bank in Macedonia.

Paul Phillips


Subject: Re: Canadian from Macedonia
Date: Fri, 9 Apr 1999 14:07:33 -0500

This is a very interesting reading!
Rob Gourley, former Winnipeger, is now with the World Bank in
Macedonia,
and has been for a few years.  He is a close family friend with one
colleague of mine.
Regards
Slobodan P. Simonovic
Professor and Director
Natural Resources Institute
The University of Manitoba
Winnipeg, Canada, R3T 2N2
phone (204)474-8375; fax (204)261-0038
e-mail     simon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
web site  http://www.ce.umanitoba.ca/~simon

Subject: More from Rob/Rachel Gourley


Hi all....

We're getting daily accounts now - both from Rob and Rachel
Gourley re Kosovo... I have patched together a composite to send
to all of you; if it's more than you're wanting to read, please
read from the BOTTOM LETTERS UP to the TOP - then you'll at
least get the latest flavour and reality from the Gourleys!

Rob's emails, passionate, candid and raw - seem now to be moving
web-like throughout the world.  Yes, they are making their way into
the hands of top Canadian gov't officials... via many avenues... I
think Rob and Rachel would be truly daunted to know how many
hundreds+ of people are now on the "lists" and are passing them
on themselves to others.

Linda

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*

You should also take note of a website Tony Kennedy has
sent us all to - he says, "For a good piece of background on
Kosovo, try:

    http://www.ceip.org/programs/law/kosovo.htm

Though from November 1997, it's well done and useful background,
prepared by the European Action Council for Peace in the balkans
and a group from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace."

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*
 APRIL 5 - MESSAGE FROM ROB GOURLEY's WIFE RACHEL:

EASTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.   SKOPJE
	I have just heard that NATO leaders are to meet SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK to
discuss their next move. I also heard from the Skopje OSCE
mission (not the
despised KVM) that there are now 60 THOUSAND refugees at the
Macedonian
border at Blace (and another trainload was arriving as we spoke.)
The
border has been closed to any one with no destination outside
Macedonia. The government knows there will be civil war in
Macedonia if they accept any more refugees. 	

	It is Easter Saturday and anyone in a NATO country with
enough clout to do anything to help immediately seems to be on
holiday or unavailable.
Meanwhile tens of thousands sit in the rain in no man's land. They
are
drinking water from a river which is the main sewer for any towns or
villages up stream. It is raining and has been for days. Some of
these
people have been there for days and nights.

	 Last night while NATO flew its million dollar planes overhead
and
destroyed 3 buildings with 8 million dollars worth of Cruise missiles
at a
million a piece, 12 people died at the Blace crossing. Many more
are sick.
This crossing is under great stress now as the Serbs clean out
Pristina
fully aware of the delicate political balance in Macedonia.

	Is this not the humanitarian disaster which bombing was to
prevent? 	
	As I hear the planes flying overhead  I feel as if I am in a
nightmare.
Its getting worse. The political rhetoric is getting more frantic. The
politicians are not smiling any more. In fact they seem to be
leaving the
TV appearances to spokesmen. They have stopped showing
Wesley Clark
boasting about destroying and damaging. Marilyn Albright has
gone into
media hiding.

	 Has someone lost the plot.?

	 More and more planes, an aircraft carrier, ground troops which
will take several weeks to assemble, bombs destroying the infra
structure of a
country now united behind a leader they hated 10 days ago.
Thousands of
people forced out of their homes, forced to leave their country,
unable to
leave their country.
	 250 journalists on the hill with their telephoto lenses trained on
 the
misery below but no one who counts is listening.
	There is no sign of transport planes from Germany, Canada,
England,  the
USA, from anywhere to take them out of no man's land.
	6 PM NEWS    . NATO HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE
MILITARY PEACE FORCE WILL SET
UP REFUGEE CAMPS so someone was listening "BUT IT WILL
TAKE A FEW DAYS  "
and the Macedonian government will have to be persuaded to open
the border.
	 It is raining and beginning to get dark. A few days time is a
long  way
away.

	 Robin Cook says he is going to send someone to assess the
situation..!!!
Does he not know what is happening?  Was he not briefed about
the Balkans
when he decided to go with the bombing idea?

	We keep being told that the Western powers have been
expecting this  for
years so why did they not plan for it. The refugees don't need
assessing
they need tents blankets medicine and food  TONIGHT

	Do you think ranting is infectious?.

	I started this letter some days ago with the intention of
reporting on the
scene in Skopje as I saw it and telling you the odd story I had
heard first
hand but an account of the activities of the Expat community
seems bit
irrelevant tonight.
	Maybe tomorrow
	 Rachel
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*

APRIL 5, AFTER 13TH DAY OF BOMBING - BY ROB:


April 5: After the 13 day of bombing Serbia

The skies have been clear for the past couple of days. Although
Macedonia
does not let its airports be used to attack Serbia, it's airspace is
used
by the NATO bombers as they fly into Kosovo on what the
Canadian government
mincingly calls a "humanitarian relief effort". All morning yesterday,
and
all last night, we could the bombers flying over, and then returning
in the
direction of their refueling tankers, or back to the airbases in Italy.
Maybe now NATO will be able to provide some evidence that the
Serbian
military machine is in fact "being significantly degraded". The only
cloud
to such solid PR material is that tomorrow, April 6, marks the 58th
anniversary of the date that the Nazis began their campaign of air
terror
against a defenceless Belgrade. The Serbs will be sure to make
the obvious
comparison.

I expect that the US and Britain, in particular, will contribute to the
potency of the Serbs historical reminder, by reference to these two
countries treatment of the refugee crisis in countries bordering
Kosovo.
>From what I gather from CNN, Britain is not going to take any of
the
refugees, but is trying to pressure the Macedonian government to
set up a
sanctuary (aka camp) here. (Read, Britain is shutting its borders to
refugees, under the platitude that "it is better to keep the refugees
in
the region, so they can go home more easily").Even better for the
Serbs,
the US idea of succouring to the misery of the Kosovar refugees is
to send
them to Guam (!) and Gwantanamo (spelling?). They are going to
be kept in
armed camps. I am sure not many Kosovars remember the plight
of the Cuban
boat people a few years ago, who end up in Gwantanamo as I
recall. Do you
think the Serbs will draw the obvious parallels form these camps?

I am getting tired of being an accountant by day, and by night
being what
would have been called a "pamphleteer" in the 18th century. Our
apartment
is flooded with papers. We are glued to the TV throughout the
evening,
mostly to shout obscenities at Jamie Shea, James Rubin and Joe
Lockhart,
rather than to learn anything. Our friends from the non-combatant
(non-humanitarian ?) diplomatic countries and the relief agency
NGOs  are
exhausted with the effort of trying to deal with the Macedonian
government's efforts to prevent the flood of refugees from creating a
massive backlash amongst the majority Slavic population here. I
know I
swore off ranting several rants ago, but I still get infuriated at the
duplicity and misinformation coming out of the West.

Lets start with a small, simple example. Robin Cook, Britain's
Foreign
Secretary, has described the 3 US soldiers currently in Serb
custody as "UN
soldiers described by the Serbs as NATO". I would have thought
that the
Foreign Secretary would have known that the UN mandate in
Macedonia ended
on February 28, and that no (zero) UNPREDEP border patrols have
been
authorised since then. It is true that the soldiers had previously
been
part of the UNPREDEP mission, but by the time they were
captured had been
"rehatted", and were part of the NATO force. You will recall that
this
particular NATO force is simply waiting to play a peacekeeping role
in
Kosovo, assuming an agreement is finally reached. Until the
refugee crisis
erupted a few days ago, they had no role in Macedonia (now they
are
humanitarian workers too, only without cruise missiles). So what
were the
soldiers doing up near the border? Wesley Clarke claims they were
"abducted". Were they? The border in the area where they were
captured has
never been agreed between Serbia and Macedonia; I don't know
where the
soldiers were, but I would bet that it was in a disputed area. The
US
demands that the soldiers be treated according to the Geneva
Conventions. I
find this very confusing. The US insists that it is at war with
Milosevic,
not the Serbian people ( the people in Novi Sad and Belgrade, in
particular, may also find this puzzling). I don't suppose Milosevic
ever
signed the Geneva Conventions, but never mind. The US seems to
think that
the soldiers are prisoners of a humanitarian relief effort. As such,
are
they covered by the Geneva Conventions? Enough sarcasm on this
topic;
obviously the three young men deserve everyone's sympathy and
concern.

To more substantive issues. The West keeps on and on about the
Serbs having
to accept the framework of the Rambouillet "agreement". This
document  is
frequently described as a "fair" agreement, which has been
accepted by the
Kosovars, (implying that the Serbs were irrational or obdurate in not
signing themselves). There are two mysteries here; firstly, why the
Kosovars did not leap at the opportunity to sign the deal at the first
round of Rambouillet, and secondly, why the West thought there
was ever a
ghost of a chance that the Serbs would sign. The underlying
reason is
obvious- the Kosovars had to give up very little (basically the KLA
would
be legitimised by being given the chance put on uniforms and act
as the
policemen of Kosovo) and the Serbs would have to give up control
of a part
of their sovereign territory which plays such a large part in its
mythology. You judge- this is the language of the draft Rambouillet
deal.
Imagine your response as a nationalistic Serb.

Chapter 7

Article I: Cessation of Hostilities
Para 2(a): ..under no circumstances shall any armed Forces enter,
re-enter,
or remain in Kosovo without the express consent of the
[commander of  the
NATO peacekeeping force]..
Article II
Para 2: .. the Parties shall not engage in any military, security, or
training activities, including ground, air, or air defence operations, in
or over Kosovo, without the express prior approval of [the
commander of the
NATO force]
Article IV
All radars, surface-to-air missiles..and anti-aircraft artillery in
Kosovo
shall immediately be withdrawn from Kosovo to other locations [
more than
25 km outside Kosovo's "borders"]
Article IX:
The appropriate NATO commander shall have sole authority to
establish rules
and procedures governing command and control of the airspace
over Kosovo,
as well as within a 25 kilometre Mutual Safety Zone..consisting of
FRY
airspace within 25 KM outward from the borders of Kosovo with
other parts
of FRY (Serbia and Montenegro)
Article VIII, Para 7
Forces failing to ...withdraw..following such a demand by [NATO]
shall be
subject to military action, including the use of necessary force to
ensure
compliance"

In other words, the Serbs yield complete control over their territory
to
NATO. What do the Kosovars give up, beside their arms? Well,
they probably
didn't sign in the first round because they couldn't get the West to
agree
to their demand for independence. They had to be convinced (with
side
letters, I'm told) that the US wouldn't object if they interpreted the
following clause to mean that the Kosovars could have a
referendum  after
three years:

"Chapter 8, Article 1, Para 3:
Three years after the entry into force of this agreement, an
international
meeting shall be convened to determine a mechanism for a final
settlement
for Kosovo, on the basis of the will of the people, opinions of the
relevant authorities, each Party's efforts regarding the
implementation of
this Agreement, and the Helsinki Final Act, and to undertake a
comprehensive assessment of the implementation of this
agreement and to
consider proposals by any Party for additional measures"

What sovereign nation could be expected to sign such an
agreement? More to
the point, under what circumstances could Serbia be expected to
sign such
an agreement now, after weeks of bombing have greatly aroused
the
nationalist passions of the Serbs? Well, in the face of
overwhelming
military force. In other words, in the face of the prospect of military
defeat. Under what circumstances will airstrikes alone present this
prospect? In view of the Serb's perception of themselves as victims,
only
under sustained destruction of the infrastructure of the nation-
something
like the Allied treatment of Germany in WWII after Germany's air
defences
had been destroyed. This is untenable for many reasons, not least
of which
is that if NATO continues to widen its targets, pretty soon we are
going to
have lots of images of Serbs killed and mutilated by the bombing.

One of the other conditions laid down by the West for the
cessation of
bombing is that the refugees can return safely to live in their homes
 in
Kosovo free from fear and repression. I have difficulty seeing how
this is
supposed to work. The Kosovars will quite rightly be terrified of
returning
unless they are protected. The Serbs will probably fight like mad to
prevent such a protection force from taking control of Kosovo, so,
to get
the refugees back, the protection force may have to fight its way in.
And,
once in, there are two options; stay until hell freezes over, kind of
like
Viet Nam or Afghanistan for the Russians, or to build up a local
force
capable of defending themselves. Unfortunately, this would mean
arming the
KLA, which would be a certain recipe for a declaration of
independence,
followed immediately for a call for the creation of a "greater
Albania". If
heeded, this would mean a civil war in Macedonia. Which side
would NATO
support in such a conflict?

In my last effort, I mistakenly suggested that a partition of Kosovo
might
be in the cards. I mis-spoke. This would be a terrible idea-the last
thing
this region needs is a new, ethnically pure nation (the Serb
population of
Kosovo would be cleansed), next to a Macedonia, a mixed nation,
and a
resentful Serbia.  This couldn't possibly work.
The West doesn't seem to have thought this through. The West
collectively
is insisting on the terms of Rambouillet, one of whose stated
principles is
the integrity of the existing borders of Serbia. On the other hand,
astonishingly, we get Clinton (and Mad Albright, as one of my
correspondents refers to the Secretary of State) musing about
Milosevic
jeopardising "his"  claim to Kosovo if he keeps up "his"
unacceptable
behaviour. If  the West decides that Serbia can't retain a province
which
has been part of its sovereign territory for the past 80 years, who is
it
going to give Kosovo to? Let it be a sovereign country by itself?
Bad idea.
Give it to Albania, and fuel the idea of a "greater Albania" in the
region?
That seems unlikely to produce the stable Europe that Clinton
yearns to
leave to his children. Give it to Macedonia, thus completely
upsetting the
unstable ethnic balance in that country? This could never happen-
Macedonia
would be torn apart at the very suggestion.

What conclusion can be drawn from this unhelpful rejection of all
the
options the West seems to have? Regrettably, I have to conclude
that  the
West has already lost the war. In fact, despite its overwhelming
military
might, it was always destined to lose it, as anybody with even a
modicum of
understanding of the history of the region could have foreseen.

But, when the politicians of the West also come to this conclusion,
and the
TV cameras move on to the next crisis, what will be left here?
Probably a
huge military presence to protect people from each other, when
previously,
despite many uneasy relationships, no such presence was
required. And deep
resentment against the West, for its casual disregard of the
realities of
the region, and its cynical encouragement of the Kosovars' dream
of
independence. And a huge financial burden to rebuild all the
infrastructure
NATO has destroyed, which will have to be paid for by the West.

Well, will the West at least have achieved one of its newest goals,
the
removal of Milosevic? I read with astonishment an article in the
April  5
issue of the Washington Post which suggested that this might be
an
additional condition for any peace agreement (presumably with
Serbia, even
though the West would like to convince us that it is fighting
Milosevic).
Who does the West think might replace him? Vojislav Seselj? Vuk
Draskovic?
(both raving nationalists). Or are they going to impose on Serbia
and
Yugoslavia the West's own list of people it thinks might be suitable
to
form a government for these countries? How would it impose such
a
condition? Either by occupying Serbia (and possibly Montenegro)
and running
what would be puppet elections, or through crushing economic
sanctions
which would only allow Serbia to rebuild the infrastructure that
NATO has
destroyed, on political conditions dictated by the West. This is
nonsense.

Sorry, I obviously am deeply immersed in the situation, much to
my surprise
and distress. I hope that you, my readers, stay with me over the
coming
days. NATO's airstrikes will deteriorate into a grinding war of
attrition,
illuminated by inflated claims of success by its spokesmen. It will
eventually "win", in some military sense; but it cannot ever win in a
political sense. More importantly, over the next few days the
tension
between Kosovo's neighbours and the Western countries which
have  visited
this disaster upon them will be the focus of attention, and a source
of
increasing danger in the region.

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*

APRIL 6 - REFUGEES IN MACEDONIA: - BY ROB:

April 6: After the 14th night of bombing

I guess it was bound to happen. This morning we have the
international
press vilifying the Macedonian government for its "inhuman"
treatment  of
refugees, and for allegedly deliberately refusing to let the
international
aid agencies take over the handling of the refugees. Loud praise in
the
Western media for the offers of the western countries, led by the
US
(naturally) to temporarily house refugees.

So, lets have a reality check.

First, the Macedonians are terrified of the possible consequences
of having
the refugees loose in the community. Notwithstanding, they have
already
taken in some 130,000, some of whom are with host families,
some of  whom
are in camps. This number is somewhat over 5% of the pre-crisis
population,
and doesn't take into account the unknown number of people stuck
on the
other side of the border. Macedonians are frightened because the
refugees
are ethnic Albanians, not Slavs. They are afraid that this influx may
severely aggravate the call of the more extreme ethnic Albanians in
western
Macedonia for independence, or the formation of a "greater
Albania".
Consider the impact of a similar percentage of foreigners arriving in
your
community, even if they weren't carrying the baggage of ancient
hatreds.

Second, the Macedonian government has pointed out there is a
certain amount
of hypocrisy here. As of last night the EU countries who have
loudly
promised to take refugees had so far taken zero. The US has taken
zero. The
British seem unable to make up their minds as to whether to take
any
refugees, or not. Mr. Blair seems to think that they should "stay in
the
region, so it is easier for them to go home". I suppose Mr. Blair's
statement sounds much more statesmanlike than saying "Not in
my backyard",
but it has exactly the same effect. Since nobody should expect
that these
people will be able to go home for many months, Mr. Blair's
attitude must
mean that the neighbouring countries, already the poorest in
Europe, and in
Macedonia's case anyway, another Balkan tinderbox, should bear
the brunt of
the catastrophe which they played no hand in creating.

Nobody knows how many refugees there are now, or will be, by the
time this
is all over. I have difficulty with the hysterical double counting we
see
on the Western media, but clearly there will be at least half a
million
refugees by the end of the month. The west has promised to take
100,000;
this sounds like a big number by itself, but when it is compared to
the
total number of refugees, it is a pretty paltry percentage. What is
going
to happen to the rest? For perfectly valid reasons of its own,
Macedonia
will try as hard as it can to keep no more than 40,000 maximum.
What plans
does the West have for the rest, other than to assure the refuges
that they
will be able to go to their destroyed homes, just as soon as NATO
has
finished destroying the rest of Yugoslavia? Perhaps a rather more
meaningful airlift to western host countries would be in order.

Thirdly, there have been delays at the border, partly because the
temporary
camps provided by the western countries had not been set up, until
late
yesterday. While I am quite prepared to believe that the
Macedonian
government was withholding a certain amount of co-operation to
spur the
western countries to get the tents in place, and to get their airlift
arrangements in place, there simply was no place for the refugees
to stay.

The Macedonians' natural sympathy is with the Serbs. Their fragile
economy
is already being badly affected by the closure / destruction of
Serbia,
their biggest trading partner. They really have a lot of valid concerns
of
their own, and it doesn't help much to be lectured by the West
(who are
perceived as having contributed to the problem), without the West
also
offering tangible support and solutions.

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*

APRIL 8 - RACHEL'S WAR - BY RACHEL:


SKOPJE . WEDNESDAY 7th APRIL

	Yesterday I managed borrow a video of Mrs. Brown which
passed the evening
so pleasantly that we actually relaxed. Unfortunately we have seen
the
British Council library's collection twice already.
	I am feeling quite frustrated because no matter how much I
volunteer  no
one wants me. My Macedonian is poor and my Albanian is non
existent. (Not
true, I can say Good day and Good bye which is more than anyone
else I
know) I can't even claim to be computer literate.
	 However apparently there are hundreds of relief workers here
all getting
in each others way and the army which is good at this sort of thing
so  I
offer everywhere and go about the normal daily routine.
	 When my children ask me "What did you do in the war
Mummy." I will have
to say that I chauffeured around the wife of the American Military
Attaché
whose husband won't allow her to drive her own car.
	I also cook for exhausted friends if they turn up in time. Usually
too
tired to eat, they don't want to talk about their day but can't talk of
anything else.
 	I am deluged with requests to take people hiking on the
mountain. This is
partly because normal activities have been curtailed to some extent
and
partly because since the skies cleared a few days ago we have
had hot sunny
summer weather.
	How's this for war work ! 	
	. The mountain is gorgeous. The lower slopes covered in
blossom. Old men
are tending the vineyards, the trees become green overnight,
flowers,
butterflies, baby goats. It is a spectacular time of year. I just wish
that
the green fields on the other side of the valley were not scarred by
white
line which grows longer every minute. (tents. )
		My Swiss friend Suzanne has been driving a VIP media
coordinator around
for the last few days and is having a very interesting time.  The tiny
Swiss Embassy is swamped. They were the first people to actually
start
moving on humanitarian relief but now are snowed under by visitors
who are
so important that the relief efforts have to be suspended while the
staff
spend their time organizing things for them. All the Embassies are
having
this trouble.
	I offered my services as a driver but can hardly use the
Privatization
Agency's car and, like hotel rooms, cars are at a premium, drivers
ten  a
penny.
	 You would not believe how many people from every country
find they need
to come and "assess" the situation."
	 The old timers call it Refugee Tourism.
	I had described to me by a completely exhausted worker on
Sunday night the
scene at the border. On the left side of the road is a sea of misery
with
policemen in full riot gear keeping them at bay. On the right up the
hill
are hundreds of journalists with their telephoto lenses searching for
the
most miserable. Frequently an Ambassador arrives in a shiny car
with  his
entourage of smartly dressed visitors who get out and gaup then
get back in
their cars and return to the Alexander Palace hotel.	I could tell
you many
stories about what has happened in Kosovo but I am sure you are
tired  of
them.
	 Meanwhile in Macedonia.
	 It is now more than 2 weeks since the first bombs. Two weeks
since  the
deluge of refugees started and a whole week since the Serbs
started sending
trainloads of refugees. The promised relief supplies didn't start
arriving
till last Sunday. Three  days ago!  Last night the first camp was
finally
ready for occupation.
	Only Norway and Turkey have actually sent planes to transport
refugees to
their countries though many countries have said they are taking
them.
	Meanwhile Macedonia is been given a hard time, indeed has
tonight been
threatened by the US for being difficult..
	Macedonia has already absorbed at least 40, 000 into its
community.  The
valley contains a hundred thousand waiting for these promises to
materialize.
	  It shows an incredible insensitivity or an appalling lack of
briefing.
	We find it hypocritical. No one wants these poor people.
	We have had 4 unexplained window rattling explosions during
the last  20
hours. To our knowledge NATO has "lost"  3 missiles over
Macedonia. May be
the explosions were 4 more. No one seems to know or isn't saying.
	Nevertheless if there is any danger to us, it will come from a
civil war
rather than from a missile. (Unless NATO decides to bomb
Macedonia)
	We are intending to go to Greece this weekend (Orthodox
Easter) The
concept of going away for the weekend seems to be very exciting
	Sorry to have to tell you I am not rolling bandages.
	Rachel

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*

APRIL 8, MACEDONIAN REFUGEES - BY ROB:

April 8: After the 15th day of bombing: Return of the pamphleteer

If you couldn't laugh, you would cry. Last night I heard on BBC that
 the
United States that it had warned the Government of Macedonia that
the  US
would hold it responsible for the highest standards of international
law
regarding the treatment of refugees. This from a nation which has
completely ignored international law in bombing a sovereign nation
which
wasn't directly attacking it, and which, furthermore, has absolutely
no
intention of accepting even a single refugee on its soil.

 The British Government has weighed in with Ms. Claire Short (she
of  the
"golden elephants" of Montserrat). Ms. Short has evidently learned
her
lesson, and has concentrated in her visit to Macedonia on
haranguing  the
government and on photo ops with old men and children.
Unfortunately,
Britain itself  has yet to indicate that it will accept a single  refugee
from the crisis, which somewhat undermines its moral high ground.

The local press corps are infuriated and amazed at the
disappearance
overnight on April 6/7 of the occupants of the tent city at the border
crossing, and in the no-mans-land between border stations. It
seems  that
many of them were on-shipped to Albania and Greece. The
international press
are demanding to know if the refugees were consulted on their
choice of
destination, and if they were allowed to stay if they didn't want to
go to,
say, Turkey. As if the Macedonians were running a kind of refugee
travel
agency. The local TV is full of interviews of refugees saying, no
thank
you, I don't want to go to (pick a name), I want to go to the United
States. I guess the US has not bothered to tell them where
Guantanimo and
Guam are, or what sort of accommodation they have arranged for
the refugees
if they ever get there. Not surprisingly, the government is a little
prickly about this sort of criticism.

In short, the international community is concentrating on the
humanitarian
problem, and completely ignoring the political problems in the
region,
which could have much wider and long lasting effects. One of my
good
friends produced a very good analogy the other day, which might
help  you
put the plight of the Macedonians in some context, at least for
those  of
you in the UK. It was, what do you think the chances of Mr. Blair's
Good
Friday agreement for Northern Ireland would be, if 250,000
Catholics were
dumped into Northern Ireland next week?

The article below appeared in the NY Times on April 6. It explains
much
better than I can the problems in Macedonia.

When Victims Become a Threat


By MISHA GLENNY

LONDON -- NATO's plan to airlift 100,000 desperate refugees now
streaming
across the borders of Kosovo into Albania, Macedonia and
Montenegro is  a
much needed measure. And it is appropriate that some NATO
members --
including the United States, Germany and Turkey -- have offered to
put up
limited numbers of refugees in temporary camps.

 Alas, none of this will come close to solving the problem, since
the total
number of refugees already exceeds 350,000, with thousands more
on the way.
And it will do little to ease the most pressing crisis in the Balkans:
the
political instability of Kosovo's neighbors, which threatens to turn a
civil war into a regional disaster.

   Albania, the poorest country in Europe, has an exceptionally
weak
Government. The northeast, where the refugees are arriving, is the
most
undeveloped part of the country. The water and electricity supplies
are
erratic, and the roads are in terrible condition. How can  Albania
support
refugees who continue to flow in at a rate of some 1,500 an hour,
bringing
sickness and disease with them?

 Montenegro, which along with Serbia is all that remains of the
Yugoslav
Federation, is also in a precarious situation. The presence of
refugees  is
likely to erode support for the republic's embattled President, Milo
Djukanovic. He has been pursuing a pro-Western policy and is the
only
source of real opposition to  Milosevic in the region.

  But NATO's decision to bomb targets in Montenegro as well as in
 Serbia
has swung  popular support toward  Milosevic, who has already
removed
Yugoslav officers suspected of sympathizing with Djukanovic  and
replaced
them with Serb hard-liners.

 However, it is in Macedonia that the arrival of refugees for a
lengthy
stay could have the most catastrophic consequences. Since its
birth as  a
nation in 1992 this tiny land-locked country has been racked by
internal
conflict, with ethnic Albanians pitted against Macedonians, who are
Slavs.

   In addition, Macedonia remains the strategic hub of southeastern
Europe,
the only territory through which it is possible to cross the Balkan
Mountains by land from north to south and east to west. As Otto
von
Bismarck, the 19th-century German Chancellor (who held the
Balkans in
contempt), once said, "Those who control the valley of the River
Vardar in
Macedonia are the masters of the Balkans." That analysis is still
true
today.

  Macedonia's ethnic Albanians, who make up 25 percent of the
population,
live mainly in the west, which borders on Albania and Kosovo.
There is also
a large concentration in the capital, Skopje, however, and in the
years
before Communism fell, these people's treatment at the hands of
Macedonia's
Communists was worse than that of their neighbors in Kosovo.

 But since achieving independence, the Macedonian Government
has recognized
that the Albanian minority must have greater rights and freedoms to
insure
stability. So every recent Macedonian Government has included
several
Albanian Cabinet members and made strides toward addressing
Albanian
grievances, including improved schools and the right to local
self-governance.

 Nonetheless, there is considerable ethnic strife. Ordinary
Macedonians
view their Albanian neighbors as an implacable fifth column,
scheming  to
create a greater Albania, and resent even the smallest concession
to  the
Albanians.

 Albanians, in turn, see Macedonians as part of a Slav plot to crush
Albanian culture. The Kosovo Liberation Army commands great
respect among
young Albanians. When Albania collapsed into chaos in 1996, the
army's
weapons depots were looted and many small arms, especially the
rocket-propelled grenades called Kalashnikovs, were smuggled into
western
Macedonia.

 The Government of Prime Minister Ljupco Georgievski is
dominated by
moderate Macedonian nationalists. While it is hostile to any
attempts  by
Serbia to undermine stability, the Government is also aware that in
times
of crisis many Macedonians look to Serbia for protection against
what they
see as an Albanian threat. The perception among Macedonians
that NATO  is
acting as the K.L.A.'s air force is also driving popular opposition to
the
bombing of Serbia.

 In contrast to the claims of some in the West, the Macedonian
authorities
are not restricting the flow of refugees into their country  out of a
cynical disregard for their suffering. Macedonians are genuinely
worried
about the impact the refugees may have on the country's fragile
domestic
order. The presence of so many extra Albanians may well
radicalize
Macedonian nationalism and Albanian separatism,  increasing  the
likelihood
of war.

 NATO did not cause the exodus of Albanians from Kosovo. Still,
its actions
have worsened the problem. All NATO members -- not just the few
countries
that have come forward so far -- are morally obligated to accept the
great
majority of refugees from Kosovo, because the small Balkan
countries simply
cannot cope with them. Sheltering the refugees  would not serve
the Serbs'
brutal program of ethnic cleansing, as some have suggested. Most
Albanians
will eagerly  return to Kosovo at the earliest opportunity.

   But the political imperative is as pressing as the moral and
humanitarian one. If war breaks out between the Macedonian and
Albanian
communities in Macedonia, President Clinton's main reason for
approving the
NATO campaign  -- to keep the conflict from spreading -- will have
failed.
Misha Glenny, the author of "The Fall of Yugoslavia," is completing
a
history of Balkan nationalism.

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