[PEN-L:4584] (Fwd) Kosovo Crisis Deepens Political Divisions in Ukraine

[phillp2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (ts99u-1.cc.umanitoba.ca [130.179.154.224]) by]

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Date sent:      	Fri, 26 Mar 1999 14:17:01 -0800
To:             	ccpa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From:           	Sid Shniad <shniad@xxxxxx>
Subject:        	Kosovo Crisis Deepens Political Divisions in Ukraine

STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
March 26, 1999

Kosovo Crisis Deepens Political Divisions in Ukraine

Summary:

NATO air strikes in Yugoslavia have triggered discussion in the
Ukrainian Parliament about reevaluating the country's politico-
military orientation. Pro-Russian political factions in Ukraine
are utilizing the Kosovo crisis to push their own agenda.

Analysis:

The Ukrainian Parliament issued a statement on March 24 calling
NATO military action in Yugoslavia an "aggression against a
sovereign state."  The Parliament also urged the Ukrainian
government to change the country's non-nuclear status due to the
NATO air strikes in the Balkans.  The resolution was approved by
an overwhelming majority of the members of the Ukrainian
Parliament -- 231 in favor and 43 opposed.  In discussing the
resolution, top parliamentary leaders made strong statements
regarding Ukraine's future relationship with NATO.  For instance,
the chair of the parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs and
CIS Relations, Borys Oliynyk, said that Ukrainian officials had
exceeded their authority by promoting closer ties with NATO.
Heorhiy Kryuchkov, head of the parliamentary Committee for
Defense and State Security, declared his support for Oliynyk's
comments.

Perhaps the most notable statement was made by the Head of the
Communist party of Ukraine, Petro Symonenko, who suggested that
the country's legislative body reconsider immediately Ukraine's
relationship with NATO.  "If we do not make a decision on the
alliance, that may entail a change in relations with Russia,"
Symonenko told Russian press agency ITAR-TASS.  He also argued
that Ukraine's cooperation with NATO complicates Kiev's relations
with the CIS, especially with Russia and Belarus.  Symonenko
proposed that Ukraine recall its ambassadors in NATO countries
and coordinate its security matters in the future with Russia and
Belarus.  Nearly all political parties in the Ukrainian
Parliament have denounced NATO military activities in Yugoslavia.
However, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, currently visiting
Sweden, called the Parliament's proposal to rebuild a nuclear
arsenal "emotional."  Kuchma said that any efforts to change his
country's nuclear status would complicate Ukraine's relations
with the West and endanger European security.

Ukraine's post-Soviet domestic politicians have struggled to find
Ukraine's place between East and West.  This has pitted an uneasy
alliance of Ukranian nationalists and pro-Western reformers
against pro-Russian leftists.  The pro-Western faction is
politically and economically aligned with the West.  It is also
small.  The Pro-Russian faction is politically and economically
aligned with Russia, and is large.  The swing vote that has kept
Ukraine from following Belarus back to mother Russia has been
that of the nationalists -- not exactly free-marketeers but
viscerally opposed to loss of Ukranian independence.  NATO action
against Yugoslavia appears to have produced a dramatic, if
temporary, shift in Ukraine's political balance, with
nationalists joining the leftists in pan-Slavic opposition to
attacks on Yugoslav Serbs.

Pro-Russian political factions are exploiting the Kosovo issue to
push for closer politico-military cooperation between Kiev and
Moscow-dominated CIS.  Immediately preceding the passage of the
above-mentioned resolution, the Parliament ratified an agreement
on the status and division of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet.
This agreement normalizes relations between Russia and Ukraine,
as its adoption is a pre-requisite for enacting the basic
cooperation and friendship agreement between the two countries.
Based on the Black Sea Fleet agreement, which still needs to be
ratified by the Russian parliament, the Russian part of the fleet
will remain stationed in Sevastopol until the year 2017. However,
despite the nationalists' later agreement with leftists on
opposition to NATO air strikes, nationalists remained fiercely
opposed to the Black Sea Fleet agreement.

Thrown from one uncomfortable alliance into another, Ukranian
nationalists joined Ukraine's pro-Russian faction to make the
country's explicit position on the Kosovo issue essentially
identical to that of Russia.  On March 25, Ukraine's Foreign
Ministry said that "Ukraine believes it is unacceptable to use
military force against a sovereign state without the approval of
the UN Security Council, the only body tasked with taking
decisions to bolster peace and security."  But on March 23,
Ukrainian President Kuchma said at a press conference in
Stockholm, "Ukraine needs military and other cooperation with
NATO."  Moreover, Ukraine recently welcomed NATO's eastward
expansion -- the admission of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech
Republic as full members of the alliance.

Ukraine's mixed messages are a reflection of the shifting balance
between the country's three factions.  If the political alliance
between leftists and nationalists, based around shared pan-Slavic
fervor, were to solidify, it would set Ukraine on a fast track to
close formal coordination and cooperation with Russia.  This
alliance is unlikely to survive the end of the current Kosovo
crisis, though it does expose a pressure point for those wishing
to bring Ukraine firmly into the Russian camp.  There is no doubt
that strong pro-Russian factions in Ukraine sense a historic
opportunity -- amid the Kosovo crisis -- to reverse the pro-
Western political course Ukraine has been following since the
collapse of the Soviet Union.  But while nationalists resonate to
a pan-Slavic message, they are still nationalists.  And if
support of Yugoslav Serbs means reunion with Russia, the
nationalist pendulum of Ukranian politics will swing back to the
West.