[PEN-L:2742] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 2 questions

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Doug, thanks for your data.  The problem was that the spectacular productivity
growth of the large industries led to enormous price decreases that were not
matched by comparable falls in many input prices.


Doug Henwood wrote:

> Michael Perelman wrote:
>
> >Peter, no.  It was capital deepening, but the productivity indexes are based
> >on dollars.  Since output prices were plummeting, total factor productivity
> >looked weak.
>
> Labor productivity was strong though, at least by the numbers I've got. And
> productivity figures are based on real dollars. If prices were falling,
> flat nominal output could be strong when deflated. Here's what the labor
> prod numbers from Hist Stats of the US say, followed by the official BLS
> numbers:
>
> REAL OUTPUT PER HOUR, AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
>
>              official BLS series  from Historical Statistics of the US
>              -------------------  -----------------------------------
>               nonfarm   manuf'g     all     nonfarm   manuf'g     farm
>
> 1869-1900                                              +1.4%     +1.3%
> 1874-1900                          +2.0%     +2.4%
> 1900-1914                          +1.1%     +1.1%     +2.1%     +0.5%
> 1921-1929                          +2.7%     +2.6%     +5.5%     +2.0%
> 1929-1940                          +1.7%     +1.8%     +2.6%     +1.2%
> 1940-1950                          +3.2%     +2.4%     +1.7%     +3.8%
>
> 1950-60        +2.5%     +2.2%     +2.7%     +2.3%     +2.9%     +5.6%
> 1960-70        +2.5%     +2.6%
> 1970-80        +1.9%     +2.9%
> 1980-90        +1.1%     +2.7%
> 1990-98        +1.3%     +3.7%
>
> Also, Maddison's per capita GDP numbers were pretty strong for the
> 1870-1913 wonder years, suggesting that productivity had to be growing
> decently (though no doubt the empl/pop ratio was too).
>
> AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP
> (Maddison)
>
>                world     Japan       US        UK     Germany
> 1820-1870      +0.7%     +0.1%     +1.3%     +0.3%     +0.6%
> 1870-1913      +1.3%     +1.4%     +1.8%     +2.1%     +2.2%
> 1913-1929      +1.1%     +2.4%     +1.7%     +0.3%     +0.8%
> 1929-1950      +0.8%     -0.2%     +1.6%     +1.3%     -0.1%
> 1950-1973      +2.9%     +8.0%     +2.4%     +2.5%     +5.0%
> 1973-1992      +1.3%     +3.0%     +1.4%     +1.4%     +2.1%
>
> Doug

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx