[PEN-L:2741] Re: Re: Re: Re: 2 questions

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Michael Perelman wrote:

>Peter, no.  It was capital deepening, but the productivity indexes are based
>on dollars.  Since output prices were plummeting, total factor productivity
>looked weak.

Labor productivity was strong though, at least by the numbers I've got. And
productivity figures are based on real dollars. If prices were falling,
flat nominal output could be strong when deflated. Here's what the labor
prod numbers from Hist Stats of the US say, followed by the official BLS
numbers:

REAL OUTPUT PER HOUR, AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

             official BLS series  from Historical Statistics of the US
             -------------------  -----------------------------------
              nonfarm   manuf'g     all     nonfarm   manuf'g     farm

1869-1900                                              +1.4%     +1.3%
1874-1900                          +2.0%     +2.4%
1900-1914                          +1.1%     +1.1%     +2.1%     +0.5%
1921-1929                          +2.7%     +2.6%     +5.5%     +2.0%
1929-1940                          +1.7%     +1.8%     +2.6%     +1.2%
1940-1950                          +3.2%     +2.4%     +1.7%     +3.8%

1950-60        +2.5%     +2.2%     +2.7%     +2.3%     +2.9%     +5.6%
1960-70        +2.5%     +2.6%
1970-80        +1.9%     +2.9%
1980-90        +1.1%     +2.7%
1990-98        +1.3%     +3.7%


Also, Maddison's per capita GDP numbers were pretty strong for the
1870-1913 wonder years, suggesting that productivity had to be growing
decently (though no doubt the empl/pop ratio was too).


AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP
(Maddison)

               world     Japan       US        UK     Germany
1820-1870      +0.7%     +0.1%     +1.3%     +0.3%     +0.6%
1870-1913      +1.3%     +1.4%     +1.8%     +2.1%     +2.2%
1913-1929      +1.1%     +2.4%     +1.7%     +0.3%     +0.8%
1929-1950      +0.8%     -0.2%     +1.6%     +1.3%     -0.1%
1950-1973      +2.9%     +8.0%     +2.4%     +2.5%     +5.0%
1973-1992      +1.3%     +3.0%     +1.4%     +1.4%     +2.1%

Doug