[PEN-L:299] BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1998

Is the jobs engine starting to sputter? asks Business Week (Oct. 5, page
40). ... Manufacturers that rely heavily on export markets have been
feeling the pinch for a year.  But now, as the spreading malaise from
the emerging-market turmoil begins to affect bigger chunks of the U.S.
economy, deeper job cuts could be in store. ... Only 1.9 million jobs
were added in the first eight months of 1998, compared with 2.2 million
for the same period a year ago -- a 14 percent slower growth rate,
according to the BLS survey of company payrolls.  And the drop was
bigger in service industries -- 19 percent less than in the same period.
The slowdown hasn't raised the jobless rate yet, because fewer new
workers are joining the labor force.  But if job cuts continue at their
current pace, the unemployment rate may soon drift higher, economists
say. ... Merger mania is the other force behind rising layoffs. ...
Companies are making deep post-merger cuts to reduce costs. ... The BLS
also surveys the number of jobs per household every month.  The two
numbers often diverge, but this year the household measure of jobs has
lagged further than usual behind the payroll one.  BLS officials say
that they can't yet account for the discrepancy.  But "the household
survey may be an early warning sign of a job slowdown," says Fleet
Financial Group chief economist Nicholas S. Perna. ...

The S&P MMS projection is that nonfarm payrolls increased a healthy
200,000 in September.  Jobs grew by 365,000 slots in August, but much of
those were workers returning after the GM strike.  The jobless rate
likely remained at 4.5 percent (Business Week, Oct. 5, page 191).

The world of wages has indeed turned topsy-turvy for many.  Higher
earners put in longer days on average than those with lower incomes.
That is very different from a century ago.  Dora Costa, an MIT
economist, concludes that the top 10 percent of earners in the 1890s
worked two hours less a day than those earning in the bottom 10 percent.
Jump to this decade:  People in the top 10 percent worked an hour a day
longer than the bottom 10 percent on average in 1991, the latest year
for which data were available for Dr. Costa's work.  The curves probably
crossed in the 1950s, other studies suggest.  "The meaning of the term
`banker's hours' has changed completely," Costa says (Wall Street
Journal, "Work Week," page A1).

A House Government Reform and Oversight subcommittee approves by voice
vote a bill that eventually could lead to a consolidation of the
government's three leading economic statistical agencies.  The measure
would establish an eight-member commission to examine whether and how to
fold BLS, BEA, and Census into one independent federal agency. ... A
subcommittee aide said approval of the measure by the full committee is
not certain. ... The Senate Governmental Affairs Committee unanimously
approved a similar bill on Sept. 25  (Daily Labor Report, page A-7).

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment:
August 1998

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