[PEN-L:141] Russia:Violence Unlikely, but Many Worried

[Gregory Schwartz <grishas@xxxxxxxx>]

Russians Say Violence Unlikely, but Many Worried
September 8, 1998

MOSCOW -- (Reuters) Tamara Kravtsova knows first-hand that life in
post-Communist Russia can be violently unpredictable.
   An engineer by training, Kravtsova, 60, spent several decades living
peacefully in the Chechen capital of Grozny until President Boris
Yeltsin
bombed the city of 400,000 in 1994 into rubble as he tried to block a
separatist bid by the region.
   "Things are very hard to predict in Russia," she said when asked
whether
economic woes could lead to violence. "Back then it seemed unreal that
war
would happen and then it broke out."
   Some Russian politicians and newspapers are now warning that
violence, a
grim scourge that has repeatedly checked Russia's progress in the 20th
century, could return as economic turmoil has again impoverished the
Russian people.
   Yet most citizens have concentrated their energies on buying food and

goods before prices rise rather preparing for the barricades or mounting

protests. One central Moscow baby store was nearly empty on Tuesday
after
mothers bought up cribs, diapers and food in recent days.
   The head of the main opposition Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov,
said
on Monday the tensions and frustrations in Russia parallel those in 1917

before the Bolshevik revolution.
   Also on Monday acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin said
opposition
deputies were pushing the country down the path of Indonesia, which has
been hit by violence and riots this year.
   But Aleksei Lukyanov, 29, who imports clothing from abroad, was in
Indonesia before unrest broke out this year, and said the troubles in
Russia are different.
   "There was a different situation there because 90 percent of the
business leaders are Chinese and Indians, not Indonesians, and the
people
were against them," he said as he waited for his daughter outside a
Moscow
school.
   "I think civil war is unlikely because Russian people are very
patient
and it's hard to push them in that direction," he said. "There won't be
war."
   Lukyanov is a model of the young Russians who prospered by the
thousands
in the wild ride of capitalism's first years in Moscow -- and then took
a
severe hit after the ruble lost two thirds of its value over the last
three
weeks.
   He said his business had temporarily closed down because it can no
longer make money importing goods at prices nearly four times what they
were last month.
   With at least $20,000 in cash savings, Lyukanov said he could ride
out
the setback, but said he was suffering inside.

   "The goal is not to live on past savings but to move forward," he
said.
"You don't want to return to the past."
   Kravtsova, who spent the best part of her life in the Soviet past,
said
at least then people could count on stability.
   "My generation lived in stability, we were socially defended," she
said.
"You see how things have turned out differently today."
She considers herself lucky to earn about $15 a day selling wallpaper at
an
outdoor Moscow market. She moved to Moscow in 1994 after bombs destroyed

her home in Grozny.
   "I'm not doing badly for someone my age," she said, comparing herself
to
pensioners who can barely scrape up enough money to survive.
   One man said times were bad but violence would not happen.
   "I used to work in aviation, in the military industrial complex," he
said, declining to give his name. "I now gather bottles for a living."
   "But there won't be civil war," he said. "The Russian people went
through World War II, 1917 and won't let it happen again."
   So far, public demonstrations have been small and infrequent. About
70
atomic energy workers protested against unpaid wages in Moscow on
Tuesday,
and about 100 gathered at the central bank the day before.
   Still, some are bracing for the worst.
   "I think people are smart enough to come together and move forward,"
cycle repairman Vladimir Plazarev said as he fixed a mountain bike. "But
if
things get worse it would be good to have enough petrol to get to the
Polish border." ( (c) 1998 Reuters)



--
Gregory Schwartz
Department of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada

Tel: (416) 736-5265
Fax: (416) 736-5686
Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci