[PEN-L:138] Russia: Weir on Wed. 09/09/98

[Gregory Schwartz <grishas@xxxxxxxx>]

From: Fred Weir in Moscow
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998
For the Hindustan Times


     MOSCOW (HT Sept 8) -- Russia is spinning out of control and
even if the current government crisis is resolved the country is
headed for a hard winter and possible dictatorship, analysts say.
     "The only thing we can count on is that tomorrow will be
better than the day after," says Dmitri Trenin, an expert with
the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow.
     "All the chances to control this crisis have been used up,
and we are definitely headed for hyperinflation and all its
consequences," he says. "Within 6 months Russia's legal economy
will be utterly destroyed."
     All eyes this week are focussed on the political drama
unfolding in Moscow after the opposition-led State Duma for a
second time rejected Viktor Chernomyrdin, President Boris
Yeltsin's choice for prime minister. If the Duma turns the
Kremlin's candidate down three times, it must be dissolved and
new elections called.
     Under Russia's Kremlin-centred constitution, President
Yeltsin could disband the Duma, appoint any prime minister he
wants, and rule by decree.
     The third and final vote must take place within a week, and
opposition leaders are vowing to reject Mr. Chernomyrdin again if
his name is submitted to them.
     The Communists, parliament's largest party, have urged Mr.
Yeltsin to withdraw Mr. Chernomyrdin in favour of a more
acceptable candidate. Among the names Duma leaders have floated
are Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, Upper House Speaker Yegor Stroyev
and Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov.
     But analysts warn the political crisis is no longer
particularly relevant to Russia's fate.
     "It really doesn't matter anymore who becomes prime
minister," says Andrei Neshchadin, an economist with the Russian
Union of Businessmen and Entrepreneurs. "They can bring in the
most competent man in the world, but his options are going to be
extremely limited. The economic crisis is driving everything
down."
     Russia's beleaguered currency, the rouble, has gone into
freefall, losing almost 80 per cent of its value in barely three
weeks. Store shelves have been stripped bare by panicked Russians
frantically trying to get rid of their money before it becomes
worthless.
     Bank failure has shut down almost all economic activity and,
as the crisis deepens, no one can say when any measure of
stability will return.
     "Imports are already stopping, and soon there will be only
Russian products to buy in the shops," says Mr. Trenin. "That
means people are going to have to forget about the nice things
they got used to over the past few years, and get ready for a
very hard ride."
     In the midst of this crisis, a new public opinion survey
showed this week that popular support for capitalism is at its
lowest ebb in post-Soviet history.
     According to the survey, published in the newspaper Vremya
on Monday, only one in ten Russians now backs continued market
reforms, while 40 per cent want a sharp change of economic course
"in the interests of the country." Sixty per cent of the
respondents blamed President Yeltsin personally for the economic
crisis.
     Some analysts are now warning that severe social unrest is
on the horizon, to be followed by imposition of a dictatorship in
Russia.
     "What will happen this winter if food and fuel supplies
start to break down for people in the cities?" says Mr. Trenin.
"I think we are in for a total mobilization regime, headed by an
authoritarian figure. A dictatorship is looking very likely."

--
Gregory Schwartz
Department of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada

Tel: (416) 736-5265
Fax: (416) 736-5686
Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci