[PEN-L:1522] Re: Re: The Long Boom?

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Rosser Jr, John Barkley wrote:

>     I would simply note that all long waves (if they
>exist, which many doubt) include shorter episodes of
>recessions.  Clearly we are entering such a zone and I
>think it will last at least until after the whole Y2K and
>euro introduction mess is done, which is still more than a
>year away.  And I am certainly the last person to minimize
>the Asian and Russian situations.
>     But, the argument for the long wave is indeed
>technological (I know, we have argued this old chestnut to
>death on this list).  It is not ruled out by any of these
>events, much less the declines of the wildly overvalued
>stock market which could easily go a lot lower.

Barkley, what evidence is there really for a long upwave now? What are your
points of historical comparison? You didn't have bubbles and panics early
in other long booms did you? Shouldn't we be in the hedge phase of the
Minsky finance scheme, not the Ponzi?

Doug