BLS Daily Report boundary="---- =_NextPart_000_01BD2261.2F109570"

[Richardson_D <Richardson_D@xxxxxxx>]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 15, 1998:

__Prices of goods imported into the United States dropped 0.6 percent in
December and fell 4.9 percent in 1997, BLS reports ....(Daily Labor
Report, page D-1).
__Competitive pressure, a drop in oil prices, and the financial turmoil
in Asia helped knock the prices of imported goods down 0.6 percent in
December and 4.9 percent last year, the largest decline since the
government began collecting such data in 1983.  The drop in the price of
petroleum imports was the biggest - 5.4 percent in December and 25.5
percent last year - and it reflected a sharp fall in 1997 in the price
of crude oil.  But economists focused on the prices paid by importers
for commodities other than petroleum, in an effort to gauge how much
Asian currency devaluations and the strengthening dollar might restrain
inflation in the United States.  In December, the prices of imports from
Japan dropped 0.4 percent and those from other Asian nations fell 0.5
percent ....Bill Alterman, an economist with BLS, is quoted in the
article (Jonathan Fuerbringer in New York Times, page D1).
__No one knows what the full impact of the Asian economic drama will
turn out to be on the United States, but there is broad agreement that
it will be a restraining force on U.S. economic growth and inflation in
1998.  The latter, in fact, is already happening.  The Labor Department
reported that its index of prices for nonpetroleum imports fell 0.2
percent last month, bringing the decline to 2.5 percent for the full
year.  Falling prices for items imported from Japan and the newly
industrialized countries on the Pacific Rim - many of which are caught
up in the current turmoil - were responsible for a large share of the
decline.  Some analysts say the falling value of most of the Asian
currencies relative to the U.S. dollar - those of China and Hong Kong
have declined little - could reduce U.S. consumer price inflation by two
or three tenths of a percentage point and perhaps as much as half a
point this year .... Accompanying the article is a graph that charts the
CPI, excluding food and energy; inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted
dollar value; and U.S. import prices, excluding petroleum, 1990 to the
present (John M. Berry in Washington Post, page C1).

Nearly half the preschool children in families with mothers in the
workforce relied on fathers and other family members for child care
during working hours in the fall of 1994, the Census Bureau says in a
new report ...."When families are poor or receive government assistance
or the mother works part time or on a non-day shift, they rely even more
on relatives for child care and less on organized facilities," the
report's author, Lynne Casper, said in a statement.  "In these cases,
over half of the children are cared for by relatives other than their
mothers" ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-8)

Fathers are more inclined to care for their preschoolers if they hold
service jobs.  Maintenance workers, policemen, firemen, and security
personnel are twice as likely to watch kids while their wives work as
fathers in managerial, professional, sales, or technical jobs.  The
Census Bureau attributes the difference partly to the part-time, night,
and weekend hours of many service jobs ("Business Bulletin," Wall Street
Journal, page A1).

__Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in December, boosted by strong auto
sales, the Commerce Department reports.  But for all of 1997, sales rose
4.2 percent compared with a gain of 5.2 percent in 1996 and 4.3 percent
in 1995, the Census Bureau data show.  That made 1997's year-over-year
gain the weakest since 1991, when sales gained 0.6 percent ....(Daily
Labor Report, page D-3; Washington Post, page C2).
__Retailers rang up their biggest sales gain in half a year during
December, helped by last minute holiday shoppers as well as strong
demand for cars.  Analysts said consumers were likely to continue
fueling economic growth early this year ....(New York Times, page D3).
__Consumers bought cars like crazy in December, helping retailers end
the year on an upbeat note ....The December gain also reflected shoppers
snapping up last-minute holiday gifts and after-Christmas bargains
.....However, the retail sales report covers lots more than just the
traditional holiday-shopping destinations ....The report also covers
such retailers as restaurants and pubs, as well as gasoline stations and
grocery stores - and they didn't fare so well ....But that was mostly
because prices of goods sold at those stores declined in December.  The
retail-sales data aren't adjusted for inflation ....It appears that low
prices will continue to make retail demand look bleaker than it really
is.  The Labor Department said U.S. import prices, excluding the
volatile fuels sector, plunged 2.5 percent in 1997, the largest calendar
year decline since the department began collecting data in 1983.  The
U.S. increasingly is able to buy goods from financially troubled Asian
countries at fire sale prices, so import prices are expected to drop
even further this year.  In that kind of environment, it is very
difficult for retailers to raise prices when they put the imported goods
on the shelves ....In addition, it is important to remember that the
services consumers are increasingly indulging in - from vacations to
chiropractors to movie tickets - aren't included in the government's
retail sales data, so the report doesn't offer a full picture of
spending behavior ....(Christina Duff in Wall Street Journal, page A2).

Business Week (Jan. 19, page 28) carries as its analysis & commentary
feature a lengthy article on what it terms "The zero inflation  economy"
and says that with prices stable -- and even falling for many goods and
services --  expect higher growth, lower rates, rising productivity, and
more capital investment.  The article includes several graphs, one of
which is titled:  "Suddenly a New Pattern in Prices," which shows that
the price of goods is dropping and inflation in services is slowing.
The source of the data is given as BLS.

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Extended Mass Layoffs in Third Quarter 1997


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