U.S. productivity

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

There was a question the other day about productivity performance in the
U.S. Here are some numbers, current through last week's downward revision
of the 1997Q3 stats. Though there was a bounce in the 1997Q2 & Q3 figures,
performance over the whole cycle is underwhelming.

Manufacturing is doing a lot better than services, though this may be the
result of contracting out a lot of service activities that no longer appear
in the manfuacturing sector.

A brief commercial announcement: it takes a lot of time & effort to keep
these numbers current. If you don't already subscribe to LBO, hey why not
do it now, and help keep this little enterprise going.

U.S. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY - AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE BY PERIOD
all nonfarm business and manufacturing, through 1997Q3

              nonfarm   manuf'g
1947-52
1952-57                   2.7%
1957-62                   2.2%
1962-67         3.2%      2.7%
1967-72         2.2%      3.9%
1972-77         2.1%      2.9%
1977-82         0.0%      1.1%
1982-87         1.9%      3.9%
1987-92         1.1%      2.1%
1992-97         0.8%      3.0%

1950-60         2.5%      2.2%
1960-70         2.5%      2.6%
1970-80         1.9%      2.9%
1980-90         1.1%      2.8%
1990-97         1.1%      3.1%

93Q1-97Q3       4.3%     15.3%  (Clinton years)
1991-97Q3       1.1%      3.1%  (1990s expansion)

26Qs after:*
49Q4           19.2%     15.6%
54Q2           13.6%     12.3%
58Q2           23.3%     21.6%
61Q1           26.4%     23.8%
70Q4           17.5%     24.2%
75Q1            9.3%     13.9%
82Q4            9.9%     21.3%
91Q1            8.6%     23.8%

*length of current expansion; starting points are previous business cycle
troughs

Doug

--

Doug Henwood
Left Business Observer
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